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Driven by the subsidy policy, in the field of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles have occupied a high market share for a long time, while plug-in hybrid vehicles are in a weak position. So, put aside the policy interference, from the market point of view, is there a future for plug-in hybrid vehicles? We will discuss this topic from the three levels of consumers, markets and policies through the "Research and Judgment on the Market Prospect of Plug in Hybrid Vehicles" in the "Blue Book of New Energy Automobile Consumption Insight of Home of Automobiles".

Plug in hybrid vehicles are transitional products between fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles. To judge whether they are competitive in the market, it is necessary to compare their advantages and disadvantages with the above two. The advantages of plug-in hybrid vehicles over pure electric vehicles lie in that they are not limited by the range, while the advantages of plug-in hybrid vehicles over fuel vehicles lie in that they can enjoy no lottery, no restriction on traffic, and lower use costs. The disadvantage of plug-in hybrid models is that they enjoy less subsidies and the price of the same product is slightly higher.

Based on the above analysis, the biggest variable of whether plug-in hybrid vehicles have opportunities lies in the withdrawal of subsidy policy in 2020. Considering the user's concern, vehicle use cost, policy supervision and other factors, we judge that the advantages of plug-in hybrid vehicles will gradually emerge and have the opportunity to occupy a higher market share.

★ Attention/acceptance of plug-in hybrid is higher than that of pure electric

For a long time, the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles is far less than that of pure electric vehicles. Taking the sales data of the first October of 2018 as an example, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 746000, of which the sales of pure electric vehicles reached 543000, while the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were only 203000, accounting for 73% and 27% respectively. On the one hand, subsidies tend to be for pure electric vehicles. From the perspective of consumers, do they prefer pure electric vehicles?

Based on the 60 million users of Autohome, we have calculated the top 30 users of listed new energy models. From the ranking, users of AutoHome platform pay no less attention to plug-in hybrid vehicles than pure electric vehicles, or even slightly higher. Statistics show that among the first 30 models, 17 are plug-in hybrid models and 13 are pure electric vehicles.

From the perspective of consumer acceptance, AutoHome found through online survey of 205000 consumers that plug-in hybrid models are the most popular among users, with 70% of consumers saying they can accept plug-in hybrid models, while only 50% of pure electric vehicles. The number of users favoring the hybrid and fuel cell vehicles with increased programs is even smaller because there are fewer vehicles currently on sale.

In addition, the society generally believes that the vast majority of consumers choose new energy vehicles out of the helpless act of restricting the purchase of cities, not their true intentions. However, through the survey data, it is found that the purchase intention of users in non restricted cities for new energy vehicles is increasing, and they even begin to get rid of the impact of "rigid demand" in restricted cities.

According to the statistics of 205000 user questionnaires, we found that although 59.5% of the users who bought plug-in hybrid vehicles were distributed in cities with purchase restrictions (except Beijing), 39.5% of the users were non restricted cities. It is particularly noteworthy that the proportion of car owners in Beijing has reached 7%, ranking third behind Shanghai and Guangdong. As we all know, Beijing treats plug-in hybrid vehicles as fuel vehicles, and is unable to enjoy the special privilege of free lottery and subsidies. Then, the choice of plug-in hybrid model is likely to be based on the real wishes of consumers.

We further analyzed the portraits of plug-in hybrid vehicle owners. Young, knowledgeable and high-income groups generally have higher acceptance of new energy vehicles. For plug-in hybrid models, the highest proportion of car owners who buy plug-in hybrid models is 27-40 years old, with a bachelor's degree and an annual income of 150000 to 500000 yuan.

★ Subsidy withdrawal/rising oil price Plug in hybrid models have more cost advantages

Through user behavior and portrait analysis, we learned that plug-in hybrid vehicles have a higher degree of concern than pure electric vehicles. The consumer group is mainly the social backbone of middle - and high-income people, who tend to consume rationally and balance the cost performance of vehicles. Considering the withdrawal of subsidies and the rise of oil prices, plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed the pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles in the full life cycle use cost.

In order to offset part of the cost of new energy vehicles higher than fuel vehicles and improve their market competitiveness, China has provided subsidies for new energy vehicles since 2010. The subsidy policy has promoted the rapid development of new energy vehicles, making China the country with the largest sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world. However, we all know that the long-term development of the new energy vehicle industry cannot rely on the subsidy policy. Therefore, the government has repeatedly released signals that the subsidy policy will be completely withdrawn in 2020.

According to general experience, it will take three years for a car company to develop a product. The current car company's product development must take into account the subsidy withdrawal factor in 2020. Power battery is the core component that accounts for the high cost of new energy vehicles. The main reason why the cost of new energy vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles is the high cost of power battery.

In recent years, the price of power battery has dropped significantly, from 4000-5500 yuan/kWh in 2010 to about 1200 yuan/kWh at present. The profit of battery enterprises has almost been squeezed clean. If there is no major technological breakthrough, it is difficult to see a sharp drop in the price. Since plug-in hybrid vehicles carry power batteries that are far lower than pure electric vehicles, it is easier to control the cost of plug-in hybrid vehicles after subsidy withdrawal.

Many car companies have also expressed their confidence in controlling the cost of plug-in hybrid models after the subsidy withdrawal, while pure electric vehicles are more difficult. If the price of the pure electric vehicle is raised after the subsidy withdrawal, we cannot judge whether consumers can accept it and how much, but we can be sure that the price increase will affect consumers' enthusiasm to buy the pure electric vehicle.

Another key factor affecting consumer buying behavior is the rise in oil prices. Since this year, the price of gasoline has continued to rise. Taking Beijing as an example, the price of No. 95 gasoline has exceeded 8 yuan/liter. "It's easier to buy a car than to maintain it" is becoming one of the factors that affect the choice of models for potential owners. Some consumers have begun to pay attention to small displacement models and new energy vehicles.

According to the survey data of Autohome, 55.4% of consumers consider fuel consumption/energy consumption when choosing models. Plug in hybrid vehicles generally have a pure electric endurance mileage of more than 50km, basically meeting users' travel needs in the city, while the comprehensive endurance mileage can reach more than 600km, which can adapt to long-distance travel scenarios.

It can be seen from the above analysis that, in the long run, plug-in hybrid vehicles are superior to pure electric vehicles in terms of purchase cost, and superior to fuel vehicles in terms of use cost. The full life cycle use cost is more advantageous.

★ The license plate right of way/fuel consumption credit policy drives both consumers and car enterprises

The withdrawal of subsidies is conducive to reducing the interference of policies on the market, and may also cause a precipitous decline in the promotion of new energy. In order to prevent the decline of sales of new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other departments are entrusting relevant institutions to study other support policies for the subsidy of receiving files. Among them, there are two key policies: license plate right of way policy and "double points policy".

At present, there are 9 cities in China with car purchase restrictions, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang and Hainan. In addition to the particularity of Beijing, plug-in hybrid vehicles can enjoy the substitution of new energy vehicles in other cities. In order to prevent the decline of the promotion of new energy vehicles after the decline of subsidies, more cities may open the policy of restricting traffic and purchase.

The license right of way is a guiding policy at the level of consumer purchase, and the "double points policy" is a guiding policy at the level of enterprise production. The full name of the "double credit policy" is the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises, which was officially launched in April this year.

"Double credit policy" includes two parts: new energy credit assessment and fuel consumption credit assessment. New energy credits require car enterprises to produce new energy products according to a certain proportion, while fuel consumption credits require the average fuel consumption of enterprises to reach a certain target value. Enterprises that fail to meet any of the above assessment standards will face the punishment of suspension of announcement and failure to sell some models. Among them, the assessment of "fuel consumption points" has been started, while the assessment of "new energy points" will start from 2019.

The production of new energy vehicles is conducive to meeting the above two assessments at the same time, which can not only generate new energy credits, but also reduce the average fuel consumption of vehicle enterprises. The policy has put a tight spell on the car enterprises, making them have to produce new energy products. How to sell the products is a difficult problem for the car enterprises to think about. Therefore, it is a wise move to produce plug-in hybrid vehicles with good user acceptance.

Full text summary:

From the above analysis, we can see that the users' attention to plug-in hybrid vehicles is not low. The better sales of pure electric vehicles mainly lie in the greater subsidy support, richer product coverage, specific support in Beijing and other factors. With the subsidy declining year by year until 2020, the purchase cost advantage of plug-in hybrid vehicles will gradually emerge. At the same time, plug-in hybrid vehicles also have many advantages, such as not relying on charging infrastructure, not being restricted by the right of way license plate, and low use cost, which will help plug-in hybrid vehicles occupy a higher market share.

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