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In the first three quarters of this year, the total output of new energy vehicles in China reached 667000, and the installed capacity of power batteries reached 28.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 95.87%. In this seemingly good situation, the power battery industry is experiencing a severe winter.

At the "Lithium Vision" 2018 Third International Summit on Power Battery Applications (CBIS2018) held a few days ago, experts said that China's new energy automobile industry is currently changing from policy driven to market driven. The structural overcapacity and insufficient high-quality capacity of the power battery industry will further highlight the contradiction. Under the situation of enterprise tension, the industrial integration is advancing to a deeper level, and the market pattern is facing a new round of adjustment Integration and differentiation shuffle.

According to Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, the high price of lithium cobalt and other raw materials has led to increased costs, and the slow payment collection of new energy vehicle enterprises has led to the extension and tension of the account period. Most power battery enterprises have suffered from reduced profits and increased capital pressure during the up and down squeeze, and the industry has entered a difficult period of development. Take the industry leader Ningde Times (CATL) as an example. Its financial report shows that the revenue in the first three quarters was about 19.1 billion yuan, and the notes receivable and accounts receivable reached 13.9 billion yuan.

At the same time, the market concentration of the power battery industry further improved in 2018. In the first nine months of this year, the top five enterprises in the power battery industry accounted for 78.2%, and the top two enterprises accounted for 65.1% of the power battery supporting market, leaving smaller and smaller living space for SMEs.

In 2018, many battery enterprises regard survival as the most basic goal.

Qin Xingcai, vice chairman of China Power God Co., Ltd. and chairman of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd., said that there is still a window of two years before the subsidy era in 2020. With the overall decline of subsidies and the liberalization of foreign equity, the power battery and new energy automobile industries are facing the reality of "wolf coming". The impact of foreign brands on the entire industry chain is inevitable. Domestic enterprises should prepare for global competition in advance, Plan the global market well.

Compared with the recent worries caused by overcapacity, safety issues, especially the foresight of battery thermal management, do not seem to attract enough attention.

The experimental data shows that after 45 minutes of charging at 1C in an adiabatic environment, the temperature rise in the cell is more than 10 ℃, and some even more than 15 ℃. The experiment on the fully charged electric core shows that under the adiabatic environment, when the electric core is heated to 50 ° C with an external source, the inner part of the electric core starts to react and the temperature starts to rise. Although the rise is slow, the final result is combustion failure.

Therefore, the power battery system of electric vehicles must be well managed. In the early days of electric vehicles, if there was no effective thermal management, with the increase of service life, the probability of safety accidents during fast charging in summer would be much higher.

In recent years, in response to the user's need to increase the vehicle mileage, thereby improving the battery energy density, it also increases the potential safety hazard. Since 2017, the specific capacity of the system has increased from 85 watt hours/kg to 140 watt hours/kg, and is expected to increase next year. At the market level, it is expected that the total output of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 1 million this year. With the ownership scale exceeding 2 million, the safety problem will be particularly prominent.

Gao Junhua, deputy director of the Beijing Work Department of China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd., said that safety is the cornerstone of the development of the new energy automobile industry. Every step to improve the power battery energy requires safety, and all parties in the industry need to continue to have safety issues, which cannot be relaxed at any time. Therefore, it is necessary to combine product iteration and accumulation to avoid blindly pursuing energy density and ignoring the optimization of product comprehensive performance, which will lead to instability of the overall chain and difficult to lay a foundation for sustainable development.

In the opinion of industry insiders, the initial safety of batteries does not represent the safety of the whole life cycle. To this end, it is recommended that:

First, the battery factory, the vehicle factory and the customer will work together to strengthen the safety management and research of the whole life cycle of the power battery. It is necessary to introduce new energy vehicle testing specifications as soon as possible, and solve a series of user pain points such as what to test at 5000 km, what to test at annual inspection, and how to connect the details of after-sales service manual with traditional vehicles.

Second, at the consumption level, we should adjust the direction of subsidies for new energy vehicles as soon as possible, which can make it clear that, under the premise of a certain driving range, we are inclined to subsidize products with low unit energy consumption, good safety and long battery life in combination with power battery energy density.

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