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Recently, Wei Yincang, the former chairman and major shareholder of Yinlong, once again made the company the focus of the market. No matter how the storm ended, Yinlong is now faced with the problem of choosing a technical route after many storms, which will determine how far it can go in the domestic new energy vehicle market.

Yinlong is facing the problem of technical route selection

Development trend of power battery

The domestic power battery market is dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to the statistics of China's industry information, 69% of new energy vehicles sold from January to October 2017 use lithium iron phosphate batteries, with Sanyuanli batteries accounting for 23%, and other power batteries accounting for only 8%, which means that lithium titanate batteries account for less than 8%.

The top two domestic power battery enterprises are Ningde Times and BYD. At present, these two enterprises have begun to vigorously expand the production capacity of ternary lithium batteries. It is expected that the production capacity of ternary lithium batteries will double this year, which means that these two power battery enterprises both recognize ternary lithium batteries as their current choice of technical route.

Previously, domestic power battery enterprises mainly developed lithium iron phosphate batteries, mainly because of the low cost and good safety of such batteries, which is in line with the reality that new energy vehicles of less than 200000 yuan are currently being promoted in China; However, lithium iron phosphate battery has the problem of low energy density. Foreign automobile enterprises generally choose ternary lithium batteries. New energy vehicles launched by Tesla and BMW all use ternary lithium batteries to prove this.

After accumulating funds and technologies, Chinese power battery enterprises also began to invest in the research and development of ternary lithium batteries. After making technological progress, they began to put ternary lithium batteries into production on a large scale, which will speed up the replacement of ternary lithium batteries for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the domestic market.

At present, power battery enterprises in Europe and Japan have started to promote the mass production of solid state batteries. Solid state batteries use solid electrodes and solid electrolytes. Because solid electrolytes are nonflammable, non corrosive, non volatile, and do not leak, they will not catch fire even in the presence of high temperature during use, so their safety is higher than the current power battery technology. Europe mainly promotes solid state power battery technology, which is also related to their inability to catch up with China, South Korea and Japan in terms of capacity and cost advantages in ternary lithium batteries. Therefore, they hope to promote more advanced power battery technology to achieve counter attack.

The advantages of the lithium titanate battery technology adopted by Yinlong lie in its safety, fast charging, long service life, etc. However, its biggest weakness is its low energy density, which can be confirmed by the situation reported by users who buy Yinlong buses from all over the country. In addition, the high cost of titanium metal has created a problem of high cost, which has affected the promotion of the lithium titanate battery technology, Because of these reasons, lithium titanate battery technology is not the mainstream power battery technology in the world.

Yinlong is faced with technical selection problems

Zhuhai Yinlong also recognized the weakness of the lithium titanate battery technology, so it has been improving the lithium titanate battery technology. At the end of last year, it reported that the energy density of the fourth generation lithium titanate battery technology it developed had increased by 60%, and the cost had decreased by 40%. However, even so, there was still a big gap between the energy density and the cost of the ternary lithium battery.

Interestingly, although Yinlong has repeatedly emphasized the advantages of its own lithium titanate battery technology, the largest power battery enterprise in China, Ningde Times, announced that its customers in 2017 also included Zhuhai Guangtong, a subsidiary of Zhuhai Yinlong. This shows that Yinlong is promoting its own lithium titanate battery on the one hand, and has also started to use the ternary lithium battery or lithium iron phosphate battery of Ningde Times on the other.

Yinlong's new energy buses are undoubtedly responsible for promoting the lithium titanate batteries of Zhuhai Yinlong. However, the data in the first half of this year shows that Yinlong only ranks the fourth in the market share of new energy buses, with sales volume of 2671. Yutong, BYD and Jinlv are ahead of it, with sales volume of 8765, 3607 and 2739 respectively. Yutong and Jinlv are strong brands among traditional bus enterprises, BYD has its own power battery as well as its own automotive business. It is not easy for Yinlong to break through in the new energy bus market, where there are many strong players.

Yinlong also intends to enter the car market, but the competition in this market is more fierce. In the first half of this year, the top five sales are BYD, BAIC New Energy, SAIC New Energy, Chery New Energy and JAC New Energy. Among them, JAC has the lowest sales of 20000 vehicles. At present, BMW, Tesla and other enterprises are also accelerating their entry, as well as Internet car manufacturers Weilai, How many opportunities does Yinlong have to enter this market as a new entrant?

If Zhuhai Yinlong gives up its lithium titanate battery, it will lack its core technology advantages, and it will be more difficult to compete with Yutong, BYD, Jinlv and others in the bus market; The competitiveness of entering the car market will be weaker, because the energy density of lithium titanate battery is too low, and the space of the car is more limited than that of the passenger car, which cannot accommodate the larger lithium titanate battery for a longer life.

The future of Yinlong after the storm will be a rather difficult problem. Even Dong Mingzhu, who has always been famous for her strength, is difficult to solve. What's more, her achievements in business diversification over the years make people worry about whether she can lead Zhuhai Yinlong out of difficulties in a completely new field.

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