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Generally speaking, the new energy vehicle industry chain is roughly divided into three links: upstream with non-ferrous metal raw materials, midstream with suppliers and battery manufacturers of automotive power battery materials, and downstream with vehicle manufacturers. The core part of the new energy vehicle industry chain is the production of new energy vehicles, power batteries, and power battery materials. Among them, the investment opportunity for the positive electrode material of lithium iron phosphate power batteries is the most promising. The key raw material for lithium iron phosphate is lithium carbonate, which is refined from mineral resources and has limited reserves in nature. It has strong regional and scarce characteristics and is a scarce resource. Therefore, the strategic importance of lithium carbonate resources is particularly prominent in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
1、 Development status of lithium carbonate industry
The current situation of the global lithium carbonate industry is that the resource threshold is extremely high and the production capacity is highly concentrated. As of the end of 2007, the total global demand for lithium carbonate was approximately 93000 tons, with major international producers including SQM from Chile, FMC from the United States, and Chemtall from Germany having a combined annual production capacity of 78000 tons, accounting for 80% of the global market share. Due to the fact that enterprises engaged in large-scale production of lithium carbonate must have the right to exploit salt lake resources with abundant lithium reserves, this industry has high resource barriers; On the other hand, due to the fact that the vast majority of global salt lake resources are high magnesium and low lithium, the process technology for purifying and separating lithium carbonate from high magnesium and low lithium brine is very difficult. Previously, these technologies were only mastered by a few foreign companies, which has created a technological barrier for the lithium carbonate industry. Therefore, it has created a global oligopoly monopoly pattern in the lithium carbonate industry.
Based on the independent research and development of lithium and magnesium extraction technologies and production processes from salt lakes, some large industrial enterprises in China have started to build production bases for chemical products such as lithium carbonate and magnesium hydroxide in the depths of the Zabuye Salt Lake and Qaidam Basin in recent years. At present, domestic enterprises producing lithium carbonate are mainly concentrated in Xizang Mining, CITIC Guoan, Western Mining Group and Qinghai Salt Lake Group, of which Xizang Mining and CITIC Guoan account for the vast majority. The total output of these two companies in 2008 was not more than 4000 tons of lithium carbonate.
Data shows that the Chaidamu Basin, located in the hinterland of the Qinghai Plateau, is rich in mineral resources such as potassium, sodium, magnesium, lithium, and boron. Among them, 3.1 billion tons of magnesium chloride account for about 99% of the country's total reserves; Lithium chloride is nearly 14 million tons, accounting for 83% of the country's total reserves. In early 2007, the 10000 ton lithium carbonate project of Qinghai CITIC Guoan Technology Development Company in Xitai Jinnaer Lake was officially put into operation in the Qaidam Basin, making Xitai Jinnaer Lake an important lithium carbonate production base in China.
2、 Development bottleneck of lithium carbonate industry
At present, the global production capacity of lithium carbonate is still low, the production cost is high, and large-scale mining and refining have not yet been achieved. The company is still looking for more economical and reasonable production methods. The biggest obstacle to the development of the lithium carbonate industry is still the production process technology. In the short term, Xizang Mining and CITIC Guoan still have shortcomings in production technology. Their annual output is only 2000 tons, accounting for a low proportion of the main business income, which is difficult to drive the performance to rise significantly.
Li Jian, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, introduced that the breakthrough of the bottleneck in lithium and magnesium extraction technology from salt lakes and the gradual formation of industrial production marks that China has established a foundation for the comprehensive utilization of salt lake resources with independent research and development intellectual property rights. The comprehensive development of salt lake resources has entered a new stage of large-scale production of lithium and magnesium.
3、 Analysis of Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production Enterprises
CITIC Guoan:
CITIC Guoan currently holds 99.375% equity in Qinghai Guoan. Qinghai Guoan was established in 2003, mainly engaged in the comprehensive development of lithium, potassium, boron, magnesium and other resources in the Jinaer Salt Lake in Xitai, Qinghai. The Xitaijinaer Salt Lake is located in the central part of the Qaidam Basin, with an area of 570 square kilometers and liquid resource reserves of 3.08 million tons of lithium chloride, 26.56 million tons of potassium chloride, 1.63 million tons of boron oxide, and 185.97 million tons of magnesium chloride. Based on the designed production capacity, the above resources can be exploited by the company for at least 25 years, with a potential economic value of 170 billion yuan.
CITIC Guoan is currently actively seeking the mining rights for Dongtai Jinnaer and Yiliping Salt Lake. It is reported that Qinghai Guoan has a total investment of 2.294 billion yuan, with a designed production scale of producing 30000 tons of lithium carbonate, 1 million tons of potassium magnesium sulfate fertilizer, and 75000 tons of boric acid annually. If this goal can be successfully achieved, CITIC Guoan will become the world's second largest and the largest domestic producer of lithium carbonate.
However, due to unstable production processes and frequent equipment maintenance, CITIC Guoan only produced around 1800 tons of lithium carbonate throughout 2007. It is reported that currently, only 2 of the 4 production lines owned by CITIC Guoan Lithium Carbonate have been put into operation, and they have been in a state of simultaneous production and debugging. The actual production in 2008 is expected to be around 2000 tons, and the overall progress of comprehensive development of salt lake resources is lower than expected. The Secretary of the Board of Directors of CITIC Guoan also stated that the main reason for not achieving design capacity at present is that the company is still searching for more economical and reasonable production methods. If the economic viability of the production method is not considered, the company can achieve an annual output of 10000 tons of lithium carbonate. The main technical and economic issues currently faced by CITIC Guoan are how to achieve comprehensive utilization of salt lake resources through economic production methods.
The production of lithium carbonate by CITIC Guoan adopts calcination separation method: the main advantage is that it can separate the brine components with high magnesium lithium ratio. However, there are problems such as the recovery of a large amount of dilute hydrochloric acid as a byproduct, acid mist pollution during the production process, and the inability to treat excess hydrochloric acid. Although a portion of the boric acid is consumed for pre-treatment, complete treatment is somewhat difficult. At the same time, a large amount of magnesium oxide slag is generated during calcination. Due to the presence of boron in the magnesium slag, the separation of magnesium and boron is very difficult, and the utilization of magnesium resources generated during calcination still needs to be studied. The acidic environment of calcination is also difficult to completely solve the corrosion problem of brick furnace equipment.
Xizang Mining
CITIC Guoan owns a lithium magnesium associated ore, which has not made a breakthrough in technology in the past two or three years. Xizang Mining's dominant position in upstream raw materials is quite prominent. The company currently holds a 20-year mining right to the Zabuye Salt Lake, which has the largest lithium reserves in China and the third largest in the world. This is the only lithium carbonate salt lake in the world that exists in natural form. In addition to lithium carbonate naturally deposited on the lake shore and bottom, the conservative estimate of lithium carbonate content in the lake water is as high as 2 million tons. Its magnesium lithium ratio is only 0.02, so there is no need to face the problem of extracting lithium from brine with high magnesium lithium ratio. Therefore, Xizang Mining has great potential to benefit in the future.
The Zabuye Salt Lake of Xizang Mining adopts the solar pond concentration method: Zabuye Salt Lake is a natural carbonate lake with the lowest magnesium lithium ratio in the world, excellent resources and reliable process. But Zabuye Baiyin is over 2000 kilometers long, with a long transportation distance, and Zabuye's water and electricity lines are not connected. The infrastructure is poor, and increasing production capacity requires a large amount of capital investment. But in terms of resource endowment, Zabuye is the most promising lithium carbonate production area in the future. In 2009, the company planned to produce 150000 tons each of potassium magnesium sulfate fertilizer and potassium chloride, and about 3000 tons of lithium carbonate, with a planned sales revenue of 750 million yuan. In the future, by increasing the extraction of brine from wells and increasing the production capacity of potassium chloride by 120000 tons, it is planned to achieve this by 2010
Western Mining Group
At present, Western Mining Group controls 74% of the shares of Qinghai Lithium Industry. Qinghai Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. is currently undertaking the construction of the Qinghai Salt Lake Lithium Extraction and Resource Comprehensive Utilization Industrialization Demonstration Project in Dongtai Jinnaer. In October 2007, the lithium carbonate project designed by Western Mining Group with a production capacity of 3000 tons began to be put into production. After a year of operation and production process transformation and optimization, the lithium carbonate project achieved monthly production by September 2008. Currently, the output of lithium carbonate products has exceeded 1000 tons, with product quality greater than 99.5%. It has also achieved large-scale clean production with low cost, no high temperature and high corrosion, no exhaust gas, and no waste residue emissions.
Qinghai Lithium Membrane Method: The process route utilizes multi-stage membrane separation technology to increase the Mg: Li ratio in the brine from 20:1 to around 1:2, followed by the addition of sodium carbonate to precipitate lithium carbonate. The main problem currently occurring is that the precipitation of concentrated salt in the reverse osmosis concentration process is difficult to control, which can easily block or damage the membrane. It is necessary to further expand the range of operating parameters and stabilize the process conditions. The plan is to reach around 2000 tons in 2009 and expand to 7000 tons per year after stabilizing in the future. The Western Mining Group is currently constructing a lithium carbonate production base with a capacity of 20000 tons, and preparing to build high-purity lithium carbonate projects with a capacity of over 100 tons and lithium hydroxide projects with a capacity of over 1000 tons.
It should be noted that Qinghai Lithium's lithium carbonate business belongs to Western Mining Group, and Western Mining Co., Ltd. is only a subsidiary of Western Mining Group. However, Western Mining Group's controlling stake in Qinghai Lithium has raised expectations for investment from Western Mining.
Salt Lake Group:
In order to comprehensively utilize resources such as magnesium and lithium in salt lakes, during the 11th Five Year Plan period, Salt Lake Industry Group Corporation will invest in the construction of projects with an annual output of 100000 tons of anhydrous magnesium chloride and 10000 tons of lithium carbonate, creating a modern high-tech salt chemical base. The subsidiary of Salt Lake Group, Lanke Lithium, has processes including resin adsorption, elution, concentration, membrane separation, and carbonization. The device was debugged in the front-end resin adsorption section before the year. Due to the low lithium concentration in brine, a large amount of brine needs to enter the resin bed. The main problems with resin adsorption are high water consumption, resin consumption, and power consumption. At the same time, due to the resin's insufficient adaptability to large temperature changes, problems such as resin breakage are still being solved. It is estimated that producing an average of 1 ton of lithium carbonate requires the consumption of about 600 tons of fresh water, with an average regenerated acid-base consumption level of about 5%, and resin consumption of about 5% each time. The production cost still needs further observation, and it is expected that the ton cost will be over 15000 yuan.
4、 Outlook for the Development of Lithium Carbonate Industry
From the perspective of development trends, new energy vehicles are undoubtedly the direction of future automotive development, and power lithium batteries are the best choice for electric vehicles. The demand for lithium batteries and battery raw materials in the future market will be very large. Based on this, once the technology for lithium carbonate mining and extraction is broken through, the cost is effectively reduced, and large-scale industrial production is achieved, its prospects will be very broad.
According to the "Analysis and Investment Consulting Report on China's New Energy Vehicle Industry from 2008 to 2010" released by China Investment Consulting, by 2012, 10% of newly produced vehicles in China were energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Based on an annual production of 10 million vehicles at that time, China's new energy vehicles need to reach an annual production scale of 1 million vehicles. Each new type of power vehicle is expected to require around 0.08 tons of lithium carbonate. Once power lithium batteries are widely used in new energy vehicles, the market potential for lithium carbonate will be enormous. It is estimated that by 2012, the demand for lithium carbonate in new energy vehicles alone will reach over 50000 tons per year.
At present, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is around 45000 yuan/ton, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is around 70000 yuan/ton, and the price of high-purity lithium carbonate is even higher than 100000 yuan/ton. The new projects involved in China use salt lake brine to extract lithium carbonate, and the production cost is around 10000-15000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the market generally believes that lithium carbonate products have very high profitability and will bring huge growth to investors.
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