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Recently, through research by SMM, the situation of the lithium phosphate market is as follows:

Due to the booming downstream demand, lithium phosphate enterprises have experienced delays in order delivery, and some orders failed to be supplied in a timely manner, resulting in the price remaining firm or increasing slightly. Meanwhile, some lithium iron phosphate enterprises have expanded their production capacity and promoted the increase in the operating rate of some small and medium-sized lithium iron phosphate enterprises by means such as seeking OEM production.

During the order negotiation season in October of the fourth quarter, lithium phosphate enterprises are generally optimistic about the market prospects and hold a bullish attitude; while lithium iron phosphate enterprises mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude and have a neutral expectation of the market.

In the third quarter of 2024, the price of the phosphorus source, the main raw material of lithium phosphate, fluctuated under the influence of phosphorus ore supply, the demand in the agricultural fertilizer market, and the fertilizer export market.

Driven by the demand for autumn topdressing in the third quarter, coupled with the booming demand in the new energy market, the price of phosphorus resources remained firm.

In the second quarter, due to the increased demand for monoammonium phosphate in the agricultural market, the price of industrial monoammonium phosphate increased. However, as it entered the third quarter, the demand in the water-soluble fertilizer market declined, and the price of monoammonium phosphate also decreased accordingly.

The price of phosphoric acid (85%) showed a stable upward trend in the third quarter, with a price change of about 100 yuan per ton. The impact on the costs of different production processes is as follows: it increased the cost of lithium phosphate produced by the iron method and sodium method by about 80 yuan per ton, while the impact on the ammonium method process was an increase of 10 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the market price of the iron source was relatively stable, but ferrous sulfate might experience slight regional price fluctuations due to issues related to regional resource matching.

It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the prices of the phosphorus source and iron will first remain stable and then show a slight downward trend.

In the third quarter of 2024, the production cost of lithium phosphate decreased compared to the second quarter, showing a trend of falling from a high level.

The main reason is that the production operating rate was relatively high in this quarter, resulting in a reduction in depreciation and unit ton cost. Coupled with the decline in the prices of some raw materials, the overall production cost decreased.

However, despite adopting a low-price strategy to stabilize market share, lithium phosphate enterprises still faced losses, although the loss margin decreased.

The high operating rate in the lithium iron phosphate industry has promoted the growth in demand for lithium phosphate.

Meanwhile, lithium iron phosphate enterprises pursuing low costs actively purchased lower-priced sources, prompting a significant reduction in the inventory of lithium phosphate enterprises.

Some lithium phosphate enterprises sold a large number of Class B products at low prices.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the downstream demand may decline from a high level. Coupled with the relatively high production costs of some lithium phosphate enterprises and limited channels for capital injection, they may face the risk of cash flow shortage.

However, this situation has a limited impact on the market pattern in the second half of 2024, and enterprises can still maintain a relatively stable operating state.

Looking ahead to 2025, the market competition will be even more fierce, and some enterprises may find it difficult to continue to establish themselves in the market based on their own capabilities and face the risks of being acquired or eliminated.

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