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According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic lithium carbonate market operated weakly in September. As of September 25th, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 77,800 yuan/ton, decreasing by 7.82% compared to 84,400 yuan/ton in the same period of the previous month. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 75,200 yuan/ton, dropping by 7.84% compared to 81,600 yuan/ton in the same period of the previous month.
I. The Reduction in Production Volume Was Lower Than Expected
Recently, the Yichun project of CATL and Jiuling Lithium Industry announced suspension of production for maintenance. However, the actual production data shows that the domestic monthly production volume of lithium carbonate decreased by approximately 3,000 tons, which is significantly lower than the market's expected reduction of around 5,000 tons. The supply volume in the lithium carbonate market did not decrease as significantly as expected, failing to provide favorable support for the price.
II. The Peak Demand Season Is Not as Good as the High Inventory Situation
Currently, it is the peak demand season for lithium carbonate. The rapid development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage fields has significantly increased the demand for lithium carbonate. In terms of power batteries, in August, the loading volume of power batteries in China was 47.2 GWh, increasing by 13.5% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 12.1 GWh, accounting for 25.7% of the total loading volume, increasing by 6.8% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 35.0 GWh, accounting for 74.2% of the total loading volume, increasing by 16.1% month-on-month and 45.6% year-on-year.
Both the 100,000-ton-per-year project of Yahua Group in Sichuan and the lithium iron phosphate integrated project of Ganfeng Lithium Industry in Inner Mongolia (including a 20,000-ton-per-year lithium carbonate production line) have made new progress this month, and the pressure on the supply side is gradually increasing. When considering the overall supply-demand matching to the inventory side, although the inventory continues to be reduced, the reduction speed is not very satisfactory.
The lithium carbonate data analyst of SunSirs believes that the lithium carbonate market showed a trend of weak fluctuations in September. The arrival of the peak demand season and the growth in demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage fields have provided certain support to the market. However, the unsatisfactory inventory reduction speed and the dynamic changes in the market supply-demand relationship may make it difficult for the price to experience significant increases or decreases.

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