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Since the beginning of this year, the prices of ternary cylindrical battery cells have been showing a slow downward trend. The latest current prices are as follows: the 523 cylindrical 18650 ternary battery cell is 4.58 yuan per piece; the 811 cylindrical 18650 ternary battery cell (3.2Ah) is 7.75 yuan per piece; and the 811 cylindrical 21700 ternary battery cell (4.0Ah) is 13.15 yuan per piece.

With the development of markets such as power tools, electric two-wheelers, and smart homes, the small power battery market has witnessed rapid growth. Ternary cylindrical batteries, due to their high energy density and good cycle life, have been widely used in the small power field. Most cylindrical batteries are encapsulated with steel shells, which possess good mechanical strength and protective properties. Some cylindrical batteries adopt polymer shells, providing more design flexibility and the advantage of being lightweight. According to specifications, cylindrical batteries can be classified as follows:

18650 Model: A lithium battery with a diameter of 18 mm and a height of 65 mm. It has a high energy density and is widely used in small electrical appliances such as laptops and mobile phones. The capacity range is between 1,200 mAh and 3,500 mAh.

21700 Model: A lithium battery with a diameter of 21 mm and a height of 70 mm. Its volumetric energy density is higher than that of the 18650 model and it is widely used in digital devices, power tools and other fields. The capacity range is between 3,000 mAh and 4,800 mAh.

4680 Model: A new generation of large cylindrical batteries with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm. It adopts new materials and technologies such as tabless design and silicon-carbon negative electrodes. Compared with the 21700 battery cell, its energy is increased by 5 times and its output power is increased by 6 times.

Demand Side

After experiencing inventory reduction in the power tools industry from 2022 to 2023, the industrial chain inventory has gradually returned to a reasonable level since 2024. The current demand is relatively strong, and the interest rate cut in the United States will further drive the continuous high growth of overseas demand. Meanwhile, the overseas lithium-ion battery application in two-wheelers is accelerating. The Indonesian government has set a target of converting 20% of fuel-powered two-wheelers into electric two-wheelers by 2025, reaching 1,800,000 electric two-wheelers, and plans to sell only electric two-wheelers starting from 2040. Thailand has also introduced a cash subsidy policy to promote electric two-wheelers.

Supply Side

According to data from SMM, the production volume of consumer battery cells is expected to reach 77 GWh in 2024, among which the production volume of ternary consumer battery cells accounts for 57%. In terms of market structure, Eve Energy occupies the leading position in the ternary consumer battery cell industry, and the CR5 (the combined market share of the top five companies) is 41%, indicating a relatively high market concentration.

Price Aspect

According to data from SMM, since the beginning of this year, the prices of ternary cylindrical battery cells have been showing a slow downward trend. The latest current prices are as follows: the 523 cylindrical 18650 ternary battery cell is 4.58 yuan per piece; the 811 cylindrical 18650 ternary battery cell (3.2Ah) is 7.75 yuan per piece; and the 811 cylindrical 21700 ternary battery cell (4.0Ah) is 13.15 yuan per piece. Even though the current demand is relatively strong, due to the intensified competition and fierce price wars in the ternary consumer battery cell market, it is still difficult for the prices to go up. It is expected that the ternary consumer battery cells will continue to operate in a weak state this year.

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