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Recently, UBS tested and evaluated the batteries of Panasonic, LG Chemical, Samsung SDI and Ningde Times. The cost of Panasonic batteries produced by Tesla's super factory is 0.11USD/watt hour (about RMB 0.76Yuan/watt hour), which is far lower than the other three competitors. Among them, the battery cost of Ningde Times is about 0.15 USD/watt hour (about RMB 1.03Yuan/watt hour), which is the highest among the four enterprises.

Musk said that Tesla has made breakthrough progress in energy density and battery pack cost, and is expected to achieve the battery cost target of 0.1 US dollars per watt hour (about 0.69 yuan per watt hour) by the end of the year, which also means that the standard version of Model3 battery pack can be produced next year. UBS also expects that these four battery manufacturers will hold 70% of the market share by 2025, and the battery cost will decrease by about 10% in the next two to three years.

China is the largest power battery market in the world, and its international competitiveness is constantly strengthened

Large cost advantage of Japanese and Korean enterprises

Improving quality and reducing cost is a problem faced by all battery enterprises in the world. While improving battery performance, it is also necessary to constantly reduce battery costs. It can be seen from the research data of UBS that although Ningde Times is currently the largest power battery manufacturer in the world, and has taken the first place in the installed capacity of power batteries in China, there are still many gaps between the cost control and the international advanced level. The current situation of Ningde era also reflects the deficiencies of power battery enterprises in China in cost control.

It goes without saying that Japan's Panasonic, Korean LG Chem, Samsung SDI and others have their own exclusive core technologies, and have built a complete business system from battery cells to battery packs. "The raw material procurement cost and production process control cost are lower than ours. In addition, the production process is highly automated. From the perspective of mass production, the Korean production cost is indeed lower than ours." Wang Zidong, director of the Power Battery Laboratory of China Northern Vehicle Research Institute and director of the National 863 Electric Vehicle Major Special Power Battery Test Center, said.

The data shows that the battery price of Japanese and Korean enterprises has dropped from 0.6 to 0.8 dollars per watt hour (about 3.9 to 5.2 yuan per watt hour) in 2010 to 0.15 to 0.2 dollars per watt hour (about 0.98 to 1.3 yuan per watt hour) at the beginning of 2018. Although no data has been found so far, according to the research report of UBS, it should be generally lower than 1 yuan per watt hour by the end of 2018. According to the Medium and Long term Development Plan of the Automobile Industry, the cost of power battery in China will fall below 1 yuan/watt hour by 2020, which is obviously a big gap.

1 yuan/watt hour cost target is far from enough

Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member and a professor of Tsinghua University, said that China, the United States and Europe had set targets for the average cost of batteries at 1 yuan/watt hour, 0.1 dollars/watt hour (about 0.69 yuan/watt hour) and 0.1 euros/watt hour (about 0.78 yuan/watt hour), respectively. In horizontal comparison, it was obvious that the target price of 1 yuan/watt hour in China was on the high side, and the more ideal target should be 0.1 dollars/watt hour.

As Ouyang Minggao said, the international consensus is that only when the cost of a single power battery drops to 0.1 USD/watt can new energy vehicles be truly popularized and used on a large scale. Wang Binggang, the leader of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Project, also believes that by 2020, electric vehicles will be competitive with traditional vehicles only when the battery cost reaches 0.6 yuan/watt hour or less without subsidies.

It's not easy to cut the battery price

In recent years, the cost price of power battery in China has shown a downward trend as a whole. The data shows that the cost of power battery in China was about 2.2-2.3 yuan/watt hour in 2016, and dropped to 1.6-1.7 yuan/watt hour in 2017, a drop of nearly 30%. Although this is driven by technological progress, it is also largely due to overcapacity and oversupply in the market. Affected by unstable factors of supply chain price, it is not easy to achieve real price reduction.

With the gradual decline of state subsidies, power battery enterprises are facing more severe pressure to reduce prices. According to Battery China, since 2018, vehicle enterprises have put forward greater price reduction requirements for power battery enterprises. Generally, the cost is about 1.2 yuan/watt hour, a decrease of about 25% compared with 2017. This makes many battery enterprises feel embarrassed.

It is reported that the decline in the cost and price of power batteries is a very complex problem, which is closely related to the price of raw materials, performance, safety and other issues. Among them, the high price of raw materials is the main obstacle to the reduction of battery costs. An industry insider said, "For a long time, the price reduction of raw materials is far less than that of batteries. Although the price of materials has generally declined this year, it still hasn't kept up with the pace of battery price reduction."

The cruel reality is that auto enterprises constantly require battery prices to be reduced, but due to the high prices of upstream raw materials, it is difficult for battery enterprises to reduce their basic costs, resulting in a serious squeeze on profits. In the case of structural overcapacity in the post subsidy era, how to effectively reduce battery costs has become a major issue that concerns the survival of every battery enterprise, and costs have even become the "last straw" that has overwhelmed some small and medium-sized battery enterprises.

Whether the cost reduction goal can be achieved

Industry insiders believe that technological progress is the main way to reduce the cost of power batteries. In the future, researchers in various countries are actively promoting the improvement or replacement of materials, such as titanium alloy, aluminum nickel alloy and other materials, to reduce costs and improve performance.

"The cost of cobalt is very high. We can consider the application of nickel materials in lithium batteries to replace cobalt or reduce the amount of cobalt used to reduce costs while ensuring performance." Sun Shigang, an academician of the CAS Member and professor of Xiamen University, told Battery China. com. Many enterprises are researching and developing high nickel 811 battery, but this requires high research and development technology.

Some insiders believe that before the major breakthrough in battery technology, large-scale standardized production is also one of the effective ways to achieve cost control. Therefore, in recent years, domestic power battery enterprises such as Ningde Times, BYD, Tianjin Lishen, Tafel, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc. are actively expanding their production capacity, but there are also people like Waterma who fall down because of their too big step and poor connection of relevant links in the operation process. It seems that there is also a risk to reduce costs by expanding production.

Although many battery enterprises report that it is difficult to reduce costs, the 2018 China Automotive Industry Development Report jointly compiled by the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering and Volkswagen Group (China) is optimistic. The report predicts that the cost of China's power battery will reach 1 yuan/watt hour by the end of 2018, and 0.55 yuan/watt hour by 2025.

I believe that although China's power battery industry currently has a certain gap in cost compared with Japanese, Korean and other enterprises, and faces great challenges and pressures, China is, after all, the largest power battery market in the world, with strong domestic demand, and the scale effect is unmatched by any country. Moreover, with the accelerated reshuffle of the industry, after the market cleaning of low-end enterprises, the superior resources will be further concentrated, and the level of intelligent manufacturing will also be constantly improved. The overall level of China's power battery industry is steadily improving, and the problem of improving quality and reducing cost will be effectively solved, thus providing a useful help for strengthening the international competitiveness of domestic enterprises.

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