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If you want to stand firm in the face of a pleasant market, car companies can't get around costs. Because the battery cost almost determines the price of electric vehicles.

Recently, a user left a message to consult Battery China. com. Will the battery cost rise in 2019? This is really a knotty problem.

It must be lowered! Battery cost must be reduced

Relevant data shows that in 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 794,000 and 777,000 respectively, and in 2016, the production and sales were 517,000 and 507,000 respectively. From January to October 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 879000 and 860000, respectively, with a rapid growth. It is certain that this trend will continue in the future.

Data source: China Automobile Industry Association

However, if you want to stand firm in the face of a pleasant market, the car enterprises can not avoid costs. Because the battery cost almost determines the price of electric vehicles.

Taking a self owned brand electric vehicle as an example, the lowest official price of its fuel version is only about 70000 yuan, but the lowest official price of the electric version is about 210000 yuan. After deducting the national and local subsidies, the lowest market terminal price is about 130000 yuan. The difference between the two is mainly reflected in the power system.

Based on the power battery cost of 0.15 dollars/watt hour (about 1.04 yuan/watt hour) produced by Ningde Times, the leading power battery enterprise, the battery capacity of pure electric vehicles that are currently hot in the market is mostly between 40-60 degrees, and the battery cost alone is calculated to be 40-60000 yuan.

In other words, consumers demand lower car prices, and subsidies are decreasing day by day. If the cost of power batteries cannot continue to decline, the profit space left for car enterprises will be further reduced.

An insider disclosed to Battery China.com that today's electric passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles all use ternary batteries. Why? Because electric vehicles need to reduce weight and meet the requirements of long range. "If the car runs 300-500 kilometers, it needs 50 kilowatt hours of electricity. The cost of the battery can just give the enterprise a small profit margin."

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All China Riders Federation, said that with the progress of power battery technology and the release of large-scale production capacity, the price of batteries will drop significantly, which will eventually lower the overall price of new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles.

The Medium and Long Term Development Plan of the Automotive Industry also requires that the cost of the power battery system of new energy vehicles should be reduced to less than 1 yuan/watt hour by 2020. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member, a professor of Tsinghua University, and the executive vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association, also said that with the development of China's power battery technology, the specific energy of power batteries has nearly doubled in the past five years. Therefore, it is possible to achieve the goal of 1 yuan/watt hour in cost by 2020. He further emphasized that the average battery cost targets of the United States and Europe are 0.1 US dollars/watt hour (about 0.69 yuan/watt hour) and 0.1 euro/watt hour (about 0.78 yuan/watt hour). By horizontal comparison, it is obvious that the target price of 1 yuan/watt hour in China is on the high side, and the more ideal target should be 0.1 US dollars/watt hour.

There are good reasons from the policy, scientific research, vehicle manufacturers and consumers to make the battery price can only be reduced, not increased.

How? Reducing battery cost requires cooperation from all parties

The demand has been put forward. How to reduce it depends on the enterprise. The enterprises here do not only refer to battery enterprises, but all enterprises in the industrial chain of materials, manufacturing, equipment, and finished vehicles work together to make a steady decline in battery costs possible.

The price of upstream raw materials directly affects the cost of power batteries. Zheng Mianping, an academician of the CAE Member, told Battery China. com that innovative technology is the way to achieve the sustainable development of lithium resources. "Enterprises should improve the refining technology of lithium raw materials to get rid of the situation that lithium raw materials are highly dependent on imports." Xu Aidong, Secretary General of the Cobalt Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that with the continuous improvement of technology, the raw materials with high prices may soon be replaced by more advanced and cheaper materials. The current trend of "high nickel and low cobalt" in the power battery industry is the best illustration.

Zhejiang Aoyou Power System Co., Ltd. does this. Chen Guangsen, its vice chairman, said, "The demand for nickel and cobalt in lithium rich manganese batteries only accounts for one third of ternary materials, so the cost is 30% - 40% cheaper than them." He said that at present, the cost of AOYO power lithium rich manganese battery has reached 0.8-1.0 yuan/watt hour, and the cycle characteristics, voltage platform changes and ternary are equivalent, which fully meet the requirements of the national standard 3C/1C discharge capacity>90%.

In the power battery manufacturing process, Sun Xiaodong, vice president of Ningbo Shanshan Co., Ltd., believed that the automated manufacturing method could improve the product scale, improve the yield rate and help to amortize the manufacturing cost. He also pointed out that manufacturing customized power batteries can really reduce costs. He gave an example: "Due to the high utilization rate of online car hailing, the requirements for the energy density and life of the battery will increase, but it can withstand a relatively high unit price, and materials with medium and high capacity density can be used. For low-speed electric vehicles, because the requirements for batteries are not high, low capacity density lithium iron phosphate or lithium manganate materials can be used."

Liu Zhengyao, Deputy General Manager of UNITA Guli Power Technology Co., Ltd. of CITIC, proposed that the best way to save costs might be to find the right brand positioning of vehicles and avoid waste of relevant funds. He explained that with the maturing of the new energy vehicle consumer market, consumers have increasingly high requirements for the quality of the whole vehicle. If enterprises only focus on cost and ignore the changes in market demand, it will cause huge cost consumption.

In the final analysis, car enterprises' concern about battery costs is to reduce profit margins. What needs to be faced squarely is that market demand is superior to profit. As Li Zonghua, the chief engineer of the Power Research Institute of Chang'an New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., said to Battery China. com, "Good electric vehicles are characterized by good sales, high market recognition, and customers who buy cars want to buy again." This requires enterprises such as vehicle, battery, equipment, manufacturing and materials to establish mutual trust and develop in coordination. This is not only the way to reduce battery costs, but also the best choice to promote technological progress and cope with the competition of foreign enterprises.

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