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Whether cobalt or lithium, after a full year of speculation last year, there has been a significant decline.

The whole second half of this year is a difficult time for people working in cobalt lithium new energy related industries.

Whether cobalt or lithium, after a full year of speculation last year, there has been a significant decline.

For a while, the whole industry also fell into a kind of confusion and confusion. They all said that new energy vehicles are the big trend in the future, and the future will be bright. However, many people still couldn't help asking: How long can we carry the banner of new energy?

Like "lithium", which is called "the metal of the future", where will its future be?

We may not find the answer to this question due to short-term fluctuations. To answer this question and see the trend of clean energy, we must focus on a larger development framework.

Throughout the process of human development, every great historical change is inseparable from the progress of energy and power. From steam engine and internal combustion engine to new energy power now.

According to Ma Yun (I really don't know if this sentence sounds like what the MLM organization said is Ma Yun's): Any business opportunity will go through four stages: "invisible", "despised", "incomprehensible", "too late"; Any creation of wealth must go through a process: "an operator who knows first; a follower who knows later; and an unwitting consumer!"

Inadvertently, the times may have turned to a new page when many people were unaware of it.

To see the general trend of clean energy vehicles, we must first review the major industrial revolutions of mankind.

Behind the Industrial Revolution

The first industrial revolution: it first took place in Britain in the 1860s. It began with the birth of the working machine and marked by the widespread use of the steam engine as a power machine. The general development process of this industrial revolution is: the invention and improvement of cotton textile machinery - improvement of steam engine - metallurgy, the mining sector uses machine production and steam as power - transportation innovation.

The second industrial revolution: started in the 1970s, represented by internal combustion engines. At that time, science and technology were mainly manifested in the following three aspects:

(1) Development and utilization of electric power and petroleum.

(2) The creation of internal combustion engines and new vehicles.

(3) The invention and use of electricity.

The wide application of electric power is a remarkable feature of the second industrial revolution. After this revolution, mankind announced that the world has entered the "electrical era" from the "steam era", and the industrial focus has changed from light textile industry to heavy industry, with the emergence of new industrial sectors such as electrical, chemical and petroleum. People began to extract chemical products such as artificial fuel from coal, and plastics, insulating materials, artificial fibers and smokeless gunpowder were also invented and put into production and use. The technical innovation of the original industrial sectors, such as metallurgy, shipbuilding, machine manufacturing, transportation and telecommunications, has accelerated.

The third industrial revolution: since the 1940s and 1950s, major breakthroughs have been made in the fields of atomic energy, electronic computers, microelectronics, aerospace technology, molecular biology and genetic engineering, marking the arrival of a new scientific and technological revolution. This scientific and technological revolution is called the third scientific and technological revolution.

It has produced a large number of new industries, and the tertiary industry has developed rapidly. Among them, the most epoch-making is the rapid development and extensive use of electronic computers, which has opened up the information age. It has promoted the modernization of social life and changed people's way of life, study, communication and thinking. It further proves that science and technology are the most important driving force for the development of productive forces. Science and technology is the first productive force and the fundamental reason and basis for the arrival of the era of knowledge economy.

The fourth industrial revolution: there is no accurate definition of what the fourth industrial revolution is, but it is highly likely to be a new energy, new materials, new environment, and new biotechnology revolution. Let's define the green industry led by new energy as "the fourth industrial revolution" from the current stage to the future rise.

From a strategic perspective, new energy itself is a direction of economic development. Promoting the development of new energy can promote the transformation of energy structure and even economic structure, have a profound impact on the national economy, and will also be the focus of competition in the world in the future. The future direction of the energy industry will be from energy resources to energy technology.

Human beings have innumerable assumptions about the future, and people in the era of what is happening are always unable to realize that the future has come. We are familiar with and use electric vehicles, but it is too late to think that the popularity of electric vehicles in this era must have its epochal significance.

Just as the success of the iPhone has driven the development of multi touch technology, voice manipulation technology and fingerprint unlocking technology, it just shows that a good technology product is a platform, which has driven the progress of the supporting technology of the entire industry.

We might as well think that the core of the value of electric vehicles lies in batteries, which are advancing towards the goals of higher density and longer range; The battery is not only to solve the power of the car, but also the direction of energy storage, forming a circular small grid.

From the review of the three industrial revolutions in history, we find that each revolution seems to be a technological leap, driven by a large demand for energy or metals.

This is why many commodities are short of cattle and long of bears in the cycle of more than ten years or decades, and every major trend rise is driven by demand.

The first industrial revolution promoted the use of coal; The second industrial revolution began to use oil extensively; The core of the third industrial revolution - electronic products and the representative product of the current "fourth industrial revolution" - new energy vehicles are all backed by various metals that constitute battery raw materials, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, etc. This change will drive the demand for various battery raw materials to grow for a long period of time, which is also the trend of the times.

Whether from the perspective of environment or energy security, new energy vehicles are the major trend of future development.

First of all, as a large oil importing country, China's dependence on foreign imported energy has increased with the rapid economic development. In 2016, China imported 381 million tons of petroleum, with an external dependence of more than 65%, of which 82% was used for automobile consumption.

If the type of energy consumption of automobiles can be changed, the crisis can be alleviated to a large extent by turning petroleum fuel into renewable energy.

Secondly, what is more important for national security than relying on imported fossil energy is whether the entire Chinese manufacturing industry can overtake at a curve, whether it can break into the technological and industrial barriers established by Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea since the Second Industrial Revolution in the coming decades, and whether the new energy industry, including new energy vehicles, may be a very critical area.

As we all know, there are hydrogen energy generation and lithium battery generation on the new energy vehicle route.

Japanese auto giants such as Toyota and Honda have chosen a completely different technical route from lithium batteries - fuel cells (hydrogen is the source of fuel reductant), while emerging new energy auto giants led by China, the United States and Germany have chosen the battery/capacitor array route.

The danger of hydrogen storage and high energy consumption are the inherent weaknesses of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Apart from the hydrogen storage itself, the large-scale construction of hydrogen refueling stations, high-pressure liquefaction equipment, heating and vaporization equipment and hydrogen transportation pipelines is a high cost trouble.

In the new energy vehicle route dispute, which is the industrial war of the century, most Chinese enterprises have already sided with the lithium battery camp.

If the lithium battery route will replace the hydrogen energy route in the future (in fact, you can consider to cross out the "if", after all, it is basically an impossible task for Japan to compete with the three major countries, China and Germany, with its own strength), there will only be charging stations rather than hydrogen refueling stations on the way to the future. It is also impossible to have infrastructure such as high-pressure liquefaction equipment, heating and vaporization equipment and hydrogen transportation pipeline.

This means that Japan's huge auto industry will gradually be divided between China and the United States. This is no longer a conspiracy but a conspiracy.

Since the collapse of Japan's semiconductor industry chain, the real pillar of Japan's economy has been the automobile industry chain. As long as they can defeat Japan and carve up its huge overseas market, China and the United States can continue to live on the corpse of Japan's automobile industry for several years.

In the absence of much improvement in the global economy, whoever can endure longer before the next crisis will have a greater chance of survival. As a country without political autonomy, Japan is doomed to be sacrificed.

After the dispute over the new energy route is over, perhaps only Panasonic, which is good at making batteries, will be left in Japan, and other famous car companies will probably be like Sony, the tape overlord that was eliminated in the MP3 era.

This route war will also be much more intense than the LCD vs. Plasma Century War of the year (the last round of panel century war ended with the LCD camp led by the Korean consortium defeating the plasma camp led by the Japanese consortium, thus establishing the panel hegemony of Samsung and LG).

The manufacturers and countries that finally won this route can undoubtedly be entitled to a big meal.

Therefore, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the whole industry.

The continuous sharp drop in the second half of this year also seems to have begun to stabilize gradually in the near future. The prices of some raw materials are close to the cost line, so it is unlikely to go down further.

Today's collective rise in the lithium battery sector seems to confirm this logic.

Perhaps for the whole industry, what we need is just a little more patience to wait for the end of the adjustment, and the general trend will gradually return to the right track.

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