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As for how to conduct extreme valuation, Xu Tao stated that assuming that a leading Chinese electric vehicle battery company has a global market share of 30% in the next decade, the battery price may decrease from 1 yuan per kilowatt hour to 0.3 yuan per kilowatt hour in the future. The valuation of mature automotive component companies is generally 15 times, which means that although the penetration rate of related companies may increase by 10 times, the price will be reduced by 3 times and the valuation will be reduced by 10 times, This does not include considerations of profit margins and technological disruption, nor does it include future CAPEX (capital expenditure) expansion, as producing batteries means investing hundreds of billions of dollars in production every year, which means a huge financing scale. Batteries have never been such a good business. If the current valuation is close to 1 trillion yuan, it can be said that there is not much room for extreme valuation.

The risk also lies in the fact that in the future, vehicle manufacturers will inevitably intervene in the production of core components, including batteries, lithium resources, etc. All capable car companies around the world will make their own batteries. For example, Honeycomb Energy is the lithium-ion battery business unit of Great Wall Motors, while BYD and Geely have their own battery companies. Overseas Volkswagen and General Motors have also invested in battery companies. TSLA has previously demonstrated its ambition to make lithium resources and batteries, so for capable car companies, this is definitely not a multiple-choice question, "Wang Bin told reporters.

However, some institutions believe that there is no need to worry about this risk for 3-5 years. At the same time, the possibility of technological disruption is still very small in the short term. On January 9th, NIODay unveiled its fourth mass-produced model and first sedan, the ET7, along with a 150kWh solid-state battery with an energy density of 360Wh/kg and a range of over 1000 kilometers. The lithium battery sector was once disrupted by this news, with concerns that the era of electrolytes and separators would be overturned. However, the market quickly eased, and there were even rumors that CATL may become a supplier of NIO solid-state batteries.

Wang Yuxuan, Director of China Stock Research at Fulton Shanghai, told First Financial that, The possibility of technological disruption is not high. In the next five years, we are likely to face the situation of semi-solid batteries. Even if the demand for electrolytes and separators will slightly decrease in the future, the entire market is still expanding. In addition, many research and development of companies in the entire industry chain are keeping pace with car companies, and it is impossible for leading companies in the middle to completely not intervene in new technologies

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