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Extreme valuation thinking is important

The consensus of all circles is that CATL is indeed a high-quality company, and it does not rule out that the share price of industrial chain companies will continue to rise, but for fund managers, at this stage, it is crucial to calculate the extreme valuation, so that we can assess the extent of a company's foam. First Financial reporters have also learned that many institutions have over 1-2 times their floating earnings in related industries, and the current strategy is more to hold rather than to significantly increase or decrease positions.

Regarding the risk of "killing valuation", Xu Tao, a Chinese fund manager at Singapore's Bisheng Asset Management (APS), one of the earliest to obtain QFII qualifications, believes that the risk should not be underestimated. He told reporters that there is no objection to the long-term prospects of new energy vehicles, but the key risk is that the short-term penetration rate may not increase as quickly (the government's goal is for new energy vehicles to account for 40% of new vehicle additions by 2030. This means that the average annual growth rate in the next decade will reach 25%). There are only two trigger factors for the rapid increase of penetration rate in a short time: price reduction and the emergence of autonomous vehicle.

In terms of price reduction, currently more than 60% of car sales are concentrated in A-class cars, with a price range of 100000 to 150000 yuan. When will electric cars with a price range of 300000 to 400000 yuan have such a high penetration rate? I don't seem to be able to see it in these years, and I don't think the cost will decrease much in a few years. In terms of autonomous driving, if the technology can mature within five years, then even if it is expensive, there will be people rushing to buy it, which is like Apple iPhone quickly seizing the Nuo market Kia's share, even if there is a significant price difference. But unmanned driving is difficult to mature within 5 years due to various factors. He said.

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