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Data source: The vehicle production data for 2016 comes from China Automotive Center, while other data comes from True Lithium Research. August 20th, 2016.

From Table 4, it can be seen that the total demand for power lithium batteries in China's new energy vehicle production in the first half of 2016 was 6.678 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 133.93%. The main reason for the higher growth rate than vehicles is the significant increase in the production of 8-10 meter pure electric buses with high demand for batteries. From the perspective of battery types, out of the total demand for 6.678 million kWh batteries, ternary/manganese based power lithium batteries account for approximately 2.1 million kWh, accounting for 31.44%. Among them, the demand for pure electric passenger vehicles is about 1.5 million kWh, accounting for over 70%. This also means that out of the total demand for 2.154 million kWh batteries in pure electric passenger vehicles, over 70% are ternary/manganese series batteries, and the ternary work in this field has taken a significant step forward compared to last year.

1.7 Forecast of New Energy Vehicle Production and Lithium Battery Demand in 2016

Zhenli Research believes that the important reason for the significant leap in production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in 2015 is to achieve the target of 500000 vehicles by the end of 2015. After this goal is basically achieved, rectification and improvement of "quality" have become the top priority of work in 2016. So we can see: ① While the subsidy requirements for micro pure electric passenger vehicles have been increased, the subsidy standards have also been significantly reduced; ② The subsidy standards for 6-8 meter pure electric buses will definitely be significantly lowered, but the specific adjustments have not been announced yet, perhaps due to the lack of suitable methods or the use of the "drag" formula; ③ The policy for pure electric vehicles has not been improved for the same reason. Under the combined use of these factors, a significant decrease in the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales in China in 2016 has become inevitable.

Table 5: Estimated Production of New Energy Vehicles and Demand for Power Lithium Batteries in China in 2016

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