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In recent years, the scale of the power battery industry has expanded rapidly, the technical level has been greatly improved, the production cost has continued to decline, the level of industry concentration has significantly improved, and the overall development trend of the entire industry is better. However, while the industry is improving, many insiders interviewed by journalists pointed out that under the current background of accelerated decline of subsidies, the pressure on the power battery industry is gradually increasing. "Problems such as cost pressure and imperfect management system still pose considerable challenges to the industry."

Rapid growth

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 328000 from January to May this year. "Unlike previous years, new energy vehicles maintained a rapid growth rate in the first half of the year." Meng Xiangfeng, the assistant chairman of Ningde Times, said, "In the past, the production and sales increased greatly at the end of the year. This year's situation may have a lot to do with the transition period of subsidies."

The large increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles has led to the growth of supporting power batteries. Meng Xiangfeng revealed that from January to May, the matching amount of corresponding power batteries exceeded 12.6 billion watt hours, of which the matching amount of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 7 billion watt hours and 5.3 billion watt hours respectively. "Ternary accounts for more than half of the country, which is due to the further expansion of the market share of pure electric passenger vehicles. From the perspective of supporting models, passenger cars and special vehicles are still dominated by ternary batteries. Passenger cars are dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is basically the same as last year."

At the same time, various national mandatory standards closely related to power batteries are also being formulated. Policies such as Safety Requirements for Lithium Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles and Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Buses have passed the review and are being submitted for approval, which is expected to be released at the end of the year; The draft standard of Technical Conditions for Battery Management System for Electric Vehicles is also basically mature, and the next step will be open for comments. "The safety standard of power battery should be more perfect than before. The strengthening should be strengthened and the weakening should be weakened. This is beneficial to the whole industry. We hope that the standard can be approved and released as soon as possible." Meng Xiangfeng pointed out that.

Problem worsening

"I think the battery industry may still be in a state of opportunities and challenges." Meng Xiangfeng stressed that new energy vehicles have formed an irreversible development trend in the world, and the demand prospect of power batteries has become very broad. "However, it is still difficult for new energy vehicles to compete with traditional vehicles in five years. At present, subsidies have accelerated their decline, which puts great pressure on power battery enterprises."

The reporter learned that the national subsidy for power batteries is usually advanced by automobile enterprises. Before the subsidy is in place, automobile enterprises will generally underpay downstream accounts. In order to obtain orders, power battery enterprises will generally bear long-term pressure. Chen Haodong, a partner of Panshi Investment, pointed out that "it will take about one year for buses to run at 30000 km, and at least two years for passenger cars. This means that the subsidy return will be extended for at least one to two years."

Due to the decline of subsidies, the sequela of blind expansion of power battery production began to appear in the second half of last year. Huang Shilin, Vice Chairman of Ningde Times, said: "From 2013 to 2017, our overall planned capacity reached 228GWh, while in 2017 we only used 37GWh. Therefore, on the whole, power batteries have shown some structural overcapacity at this stage." The problem of overcapacity will certainly make the future competitive situation more severe, and some small and weak enterprises will even face the risk of bankruptcy.

In addition, the imperfect standards and regulations related to the use of power batteries are also a major reason for the development of power batteries. Take the battery transportation as an example. According to the current transportation regulations, lithium batteries are classified as dangerous goods. The management of dangerous goods transportation is very complex and costly. Do batteries have to be classified as dangerous goods, or can they be exempted when certain conditions are met? In this regard, Meng Xiangfeng said: "In the early stage, whether in terms of policy or management, we were vigorously promoting the application of new energy vehicles, but the regulatory system for the use of new energy vehicles is not perfect. With the increasing number of new energy vehicles, if there is still a lack of supervision in the future, accidents and disputes in the use of new energy vehicles, including the power pool, will increase."

Shuffle speed

"With the decline of subsidies, the new energy vehicle market is gradually changing from policy guidance to market choice, and the power battery industry is entering a development transition period." Ma Xiaoli, Deputy Secretary General of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said.

As consumers have higher and higher requirements for products, the technical level of power battery will continue to improve, and the cost will decrease accordingly. Power battery enterprises will also "survive the fittest" in the market selection. Chen Haodong pointed out: "After many reshuffles, it is expected that the industry will eventually leave more than 10 mainstream battery plants. At this stage, the overall scale effect is prominent. With the improvement of output and efficiency, the unit battery cost will be effectively reduced, and the bargaining power of battery plants will also be improved. For downstream car enterprises, it is conducive to obtaining sustainable and stable supply."

In response to the problems faced by the use of power batteries, Meng Xiangfeng said, "We suggest strengthening the management system of new energy vehicles and power battery use, such as annual safety inspection, mandatory maintenance, special insurance, circulation of used cars, mandatory scrapping, etc., in order to avoid safety accidents caused by lack of supervision and maintenance and overdue service of vehicles."

Chen Nanmin, the manager of the information resource center of Betray Research Institute, said when talking about the development goals of the new energy vehicle industry: "The new energy vehicles are entering a new era of commercialization. The reduction of battery costs will make the cost of electric vehicles equal to that of fuel vehicles. The battery life can exceed 500 miles once charged, and the charging time is less than 20 minutes." Such goals undoubtedly put forward higher requirements for the technical level of power battery.

The reporter learned that the "ceiling" of energy density can already be seen for ternary lithium-ion power batteries. If you want to reach the goal of 350Wh/kg in the national power battery technology roadmap by 2020, you may also need to rely on a new generation of lithium-ion batteries or solid state batteries. Meng Xiangfeng said, "The industrialization of the next generation of high energy density batteries is the key work of major battery enterprises, and it is necessary to accelerate the engineering development on the premise of improving safety and cycle life."

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