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The exploitation of emerging energy is still controversial, the cost is still high, and the technical bottleneck needs to be broken through. We can continue to expand the application field of emerging energy and prepare for large-scale application in the future. Through scientific research support, accelerate the layout of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, promote the cross field application of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology in vehicle power, distributed energy, energy storage equipment and other directions, and make the chain of this industry more complete.

In recent years, combustible ice, shale gas, hydrogen energy and other emerging energies have emerged, and their advantages in green and clean, improving energy utilization efficiency and other aspects have become increasingly prominent. China's proven reserves in the field of emerging energy are considerable, and application exploration has also started. However, the exploitation of emerging energy is still controversial, the cost is still high, and the technical bottleneck needs to be broken through. Who will be the next "king" in today's increasingly normalized wind, photovoltaic, hydropower and other emerging energy? Where is the future of China's emerging energy commercialization?

The mining is still controversial

Emerging energy has been described as a promising prospect for development and application. However, it seems that there is still a long way to go before large-scale commercial applications like oil and coal can be realized. In the private sector, there are some discussions on the exploitation of some emerging energy sources. For example, the view that combustible ice decomposition will promote climate warming still has a market today, but is this really the case?

Liang Qianyong, deputy director of the National Hydrate Special Project "Investigation and Evaluation of Environmental Effects of Natural Gas Hydrates in the South China Sea", said that there are only a few global pilot production projects of combustible ice. Human concerns about the safety and environmental protection of combustible ice are mainly inferred from theory, which requires engineering verification.

China's engineers and technicians have proved through trial production that the combustible ice in the sea area is formed and stored in the high-pressure and low-temperature environment of the seabed. As long as manual intervention is stopped, the temperature and pressure of the formation where the hydrate is located will return to stability again, and the hydrate will no longer continue to decompose. In addition, scientific research and examples of natural methane leakage such as cold springs on the sea floor show that even if a certain amount of methane leaks to the sea floor, it should be able to digest and absorb the purification capacity of the ocean as the ocean current moves under the sea surface. In theory, there is no possibility of causing large-scale greenhouse effect.

Of course, more mining practices are needed to prove this view to convince everyone. Liang Qianyong and other experts believe that since the sea floor slope of China's trial mining and preparatory mining sea areas is very gentle and not easy to collapse, and the argillaceous silt type geology is more plastic than that of Japan's coarse sand type geology, the environmental difficulties of China's combustible ice mining will mainly focus on the prevention of formation settlement that may be caused after mining, which is also a core problem facing the world, "Although no settlement has been seen in the trial production of various countries, it cannot be ruled out that the seabed settlement may be caused by large-scale mining. Now the world is studying this problem, and we will focus on and prevent it in the future trial production."

Costs are still high

There is no doubt about the value of emerging energy, but its mining and utilization costs are still high, and it will take time to realize commercialization. Judging from the practice of Japan's pilot mining of deep-sea combustible ice, mining is not so easy. The existing combustible ice resources and daily production capacity are far from enough to support the industrialization process. Among the 80 billion tons of oil equivalent sea area combustible ice prospective resources in China, only Shenhu and Dongsha ore bodies have proven geological reserves of 100 billion cubic meters. In 2017, the average daily gas production of the trial production reached 5151 cubic meters, and the maximum daily production reached 35000 cubic meters. However, the average daily production value of commercial mining needs to reach more than 100000 cubic meters. Therefore, the current mining capacity is still far from the expected output, This means that the development of combustible ice can not achieve economic benefits temporarily.

Although the theoretical data of shale gas reserves in China are large, the geological conditions are far inferior to those in the United States, which makes it difficult to exploit and the development cost is relatively high. Experts said frankly that China's shale gas reservoirs are "old in geology and deep in burial". Resources more than 3500 meters shallow only account for 15% of the reserves, while those between 3500 meters and 4500 meters account for 85%. These deep shale gas cannot be commercially exploited under the existing economic and technological conditions.

Hydrogen energy also faces similar problems. Xu Huachi, deputy director of the hydrogen energy research office of Tsinghua Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute, said that China has cultivated a relatively complete industrial chain of hydrogen energy and fuel cells, but the cost of related products is high. The application of hydrogen fuel cell is also common in the transportation field, such as large and medium-sized buses. In the passenger car field, domestic manufacturers are still in the prototype vehicle manufacturing stage.

The cost of hydrogen fuel cell system and its accessories is relatively expensive, leading to the high cost of hydrogen fuel vehicles. The development of hydrogen energy industry is also limited by the distribution of low-cost resources. Generally speaking, if the development of hydrogen production from electrolytic water requires relatively rich water resources and relatively low electricity prices; Hydrogen can also be obtained through purification of by-products of hydrogen rich industries such as chlor alkali chemical industry and natural gas chemical industry. However, due to the high cost of long-distance transportation of hydrogen energy, the effective economic radius is small, and only places with cheap hydrogen sources can develop hydrogen energy and fuel cells.

In order to avoid external misunderstanding, Xu Huachi emphasized that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles are not substitutes, but should be complementary. Due to their different physical characteristics, pure electric vehicles are suitable for passenger cars and short distance transportation in cities, while hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are more suitable for long-distance, high power scenarios, such as intercity buses, logistics, etc.

Technical bottleneck to be broken

The technical bottleneck of rapid industrialization of emerging energy still exists. Taking shale gas as an example, the success of the "shale gas revolution" in the United States benefited from the maturity and extensive application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology, which still needs to be improved in China.

The International Energy Agency released the World Energy Outlook 2017 China Special Report at the end of last year, which predicted that by 2040, the proportion of natural gas in China's main energy structure will rise from less than 6% to 12%, of which the increase in natural gas production will mainly come from shale gas in unconventional gas. Ma Xinhua, head of PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company, said that PetroChina's goal is to achieve shale gas production of 12 billion m3 by 2020 and 50 billion m3 by 2035. There is no problem with resources. The key is to keep up with engineering technology and organizational system.

Of course, independent breakthroughs in technology are indispensable. The exploration and development of emerging energy has not been started for a long time. From the very beginning, we should focus on technological innovation and breakthroughs to make China truly independent in energy security capacity building.

Taking shale gas as an example, Guo Xusheng, general manager of Sinopec Exploration Branch, and other people suggested that the state could support the technical breakthrough of benefit development of deep shale gas through scientific and technological projects, marketization, and multi subject participation, and focus on tackling key technologies such as shale gas reservoir enrichment mechanism, prediction technology, and fracturing engineering technology. We will encourage strong technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in the intensive cultivation of shale gas development technology, engineering and equipment fields, and strive for multiple breakthroughs to continuously reduce the full chain costs of shale gas exploration and development.

We should also take application as the guidance, constantly expand the application fields of emerging energy, and prepare for large-scale application in the future. Through scientific research support, accelerate the layout of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, promote the cross field application of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology in vehicle power, distributed energy, energy storage equipment and other directions, and make the chain of this industry more complete.

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