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DNVGL, a Norwegian based quality assurance and risk management company, released its annual energy transformation outlook (ETO2018). The report points out that solar photovoltaic will become the biggest winner in the global energy transformation. In other findings, it believed that the cost of energy transformation would not exceed the current fossil fuel investment, and stressed that it was financially feasible to move towards a low-carbon society.

Despite the rapid growth of all renewable energy resources and the positive development of energy efficiency, analysts concluded that the current ambition would not meet the 2 ° C target set by the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Strong growth

Analysts said that solar photovoltaic power generation will continue to achieve success. DNVGL claims that the global installed capacity will increase 65 times by 2050. At that time, the cumulative capacity will reach 19TW, accounting for 40% of global power production. About 30% of the capacity will be installed on residential or commercial roofs, while the remaining 13.3TW will be used for ground mounted utility scale systems. It added that the cumulative land use of ground mounted systems has been tracked to account for 0.3% of the global total land area.

In particular, the growth of renewable energy and solar photovoltaic power generation will have a negative impact on the fossil fuel industry. DNVGL said that from now to 2050, global power demand will increase 2.5 times, while coal and gas power generation will decrease by 60%.

With the continuous increase of variable renewable energy assets, the storage system is becoming the center of the future energy system. ETO2018 stipulates that by 2050, about 50 TWh of storage capacity will be installed to cope with the generation of variable energy. In addition, analysts calculated that 10% of the electric vehicle (EV) battery capacity can be used to participate in grid services to reduce the number of fixed storage systems.

DNVGL recognizes that EV adoption rates and the willingness of EV owners to participate in such programs may change, so it is estimated that the European electric fleet will be able to provide almost all the storage required for grid services in 2050.

Power grid expenditure is not a cup of tea for PV

The power grid expenditure has risen sharply; However, the model used by DNVGL in its report attributed this increase in expenditure mainly to the increase in electricity demand, rather than the increase in renewable energy. In fact, it said that the cost of grid restoration measures caused by the increase in the installation of variable renewable energy was far less than one third of the total expenditure.

In their calculations, analysts assumed that global grid spending would increase from less than $500 billion a year now to about $1.5 trillion a year by 2050. By 2050, the increase in grid expenditure due to the increase of variable renewable energy is expected to be about $35 billion to $40 billion annually in 2050.

Despite efforts to meet energy efficiency needs, more and more people enjoy grid connection and modern household appliances lifestyle, which will lead to an annual growth of 0.9% in global energy demand. According to the report, the current global energy demand is about 400 joules (EJ) per year. Considering the growth of energy demand, it is estimated that the global energy demand will peak in 2035, 470EJ per year. After that, the energy demand may decline again, to 450EJ every year by the middle of this century.

Therefore, energy efficiency is becoming an important topic. It is reported that between 2016 and 2050, India and China will be two regions with significant growth in per capita energy consumption. In 2016, China's per capita energy consumption reached 96GJ, which may increase to 111GJ. In India, the consumption will increase from 26GJ to 43GJ in the same forecast period. In contrast, consumption in North America will drop sharply from 297GJ to 136GJ, while in Europe it will drop from 137GJ to 86GJ. In general, the world average will drop from 78GJ to 64GJ per person.

In addition, the off grid photovoltaic system will be mainly used to achieve full supply in sub Saharan Africa and India where there is no excess energy. In these areas, off grid photovoltaic systems may also replace existing off grid diesel generator sets. According to the analysis, off grid PV will account for 50% and 30% of the share in these regions respectively. Although the energy consumption of the population in these regions is generally low, it is worth noting that sub Saharan Africa and India have a large population of more than 2 billion people, which is equivalent to a considerable market.

Energy transformation financing

ETO2018 further calculated that the investment in fossil fuels in 2016 reached 3.4 trillion dollars. It is estimated that these investments will be reduced to 2.1 trillion dollars by 2050. The investment in non fossil energy will reverse in the whole forecast period. In 2016, global non fossil investment reached US $0.69 trillion, which will increase to US $2.4 trillion by 2050.

Analysts also calculated that the overall global energy expenditure will increase from US $4.5 trillion in 2016 to US $6 trillion in 2050, an increase of 33%. However, as the global GDP is also expected to grow by 130%, accounting for the proportion of global GDP investment worldwide, the energy system will decline from 5.5% in 2016 to 3.1% in 2050.

The report continues to emphasize the importance of renewable energy assets. By 2029, the capital expenditure of renewable energy assets will exceed that of fossil fuel sector. These have led to a shift from operating expenditure related to access to fuel to capital expenditure. In 2016, only 17% of energy expenditure accounted for capital expenditure, which will rise to 47% by 2050; Although this marks this shift, it is not a harbinger of increased spending. In this case, the analysts also assume that the system cost of solar photovoltaic and wind energy will decrease by 16-18% to double the capacity.

According to the report, while the capital expenditure burden of renewable energy and power grid is heavy, the energy transition may still be financially challenging, but our forecast shows that it is unlikely to be economically destructive. If we choose to maintain the percentage of global GDP and energy expenditure, there will be enough space to accelerate the pace of change. “

Failure to reach the Paris Agreement

According to analysts' estimates, the global energy related carbon emissions reached 32 gigatonnes (Gt), unchanged in the past three years. It is reported that emissions will continue to show a slightly flat or slightly upward trend, reaching the peak in 2025, about 3% higher than today. The DNVGL report continues to say that after this, the global carbon emissions will gradually decline to 50% of the current level (18Gt) by 2050.

In addition, by 2050, the energy related emissions of coal and oil will decrease by 65% and 52% respectively, while the energy emissions of gas-fired power generation may increase by 6% in the same period. Analysts have little hope for the potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS), claiming that the technology will not exceed 0.3Gt in 2050, accounting for 1.7% of global carbon emissions.

The report ended in a sober way, reiterating the carbon budget calculation of the "Paris Agreement". According to the budget calculation, the carbon dioxide budget at 2 ° C is 290 billion tons of carbon dioxide, using the 66% ("possible") probability threshold of the IPCC report. In the carbon dioxide budget of 2900Gt, 800GtCO2 eq has been deducted from the total budget of 3700GtCO2 equivalent to allow non carbon dioxide emissions, such as methane (CH4).

Therefore, analysts use different degrees of residual carbon budget and probability threshold to calculate. The analysts calculated from this estimate that the world will have used its carbon budget to reach 1.5 ° C by 2021. From this perspective, the global carbon emissions will exceed 2 ° C by 2037. By 2050, the global carbon dioxide emissions will exceed the target of 2 ° C and reach 390 gallons of carbon dioxide emissions.

"These data show that the world is warming to 2.6 ° C, the global average level before industrialization in the second half of this century," the analyst concluded.

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