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1、 The cost of power lithium battery has dropped, but there is still room for decline

The manufacturing cost of electric vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and the selling price is generally about 30000 to 30000 higher than that of the same fuel vehicles, of which the cost of lithium battery power accounts for about 40%. According to the public data, the global power lithium-ion battery pack price will be 156 dollars/kWh in 2019, which is expected to drop to 93 dollars/kWh by 2024 and 61 dollars/kWh by 2030.

From the perspective of the cost structure of the battery pack, the cost of the raw materials of the cell is the largest. The price of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other rare metals has remained high. Taking electrolytic cobalt as an example, the price of electrolytic cobalt has remained within the price range of 250000 - 300000/ton in the past year. Therefore, it is a new direction to find new materials and processes to reduce costs.

2、 Vehicle enterprises have laid out plans in the field of power lithium battery, reducing costs by themselves to win more markets

On September 23, Tesla announced a number of new technologies during its "Battery Day". The important purpose is to continuously reduce costs, so as to ensure price advantage in the market and improve sales. Tesla officially announced that by 2025, by means of cost reduction, the cost of Tesla's battery pack is expected to drop by 56% to 56 dollars/kWh, and the price of Tesla's pure electric vehicle is expected to drop to 25000 dollars. It can be calculated in turn that, taking Tesla ModelS with 100kWh battery pack as an example, the cost of its single car battery will drop from $13000 to $5600, and the vehicle price will drop by 10%. Under the condition of ensuring the product quality, the selling price of such a large underground bicycle will certainly win the favor of the market and quickly increase the sales volume. At the same time, Tesla announced that it intends to expand the output of power lithium batteries to 10GWh in 2021 and 200GWh in 2022. If it can achieve self-sufficiency in the future, it will not only reduce costs, but also improve the adaptability of batteries and vehicles, killing two birds with one stone.

In addition to Tesla, many mainstream automotive enterprises have dabbled in the battery field, which is roughly reflected in three forms: first, deepen cooperation with battery manufacturers. Ningde Times has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Chang'an Automobile, Dongfeng Company, Honda Motor, BAIC Motor and many other OEMs. According to the data of China's automobile power lithium battery industry innovation alliance, from January to September 2020, Ningde Times has 16.75GWh of installed vehicles, accounting for 49% of the market share. Second, the main engine factory invested in the battery company to grasp the core technology with capital. On May 28, Volkswagen China signed the Share Transfer Agreement with Guoxuan High tech, and formally became a shareholder of Guoxuan High tech. On July 2, Daimler Greater China invested 904.5 million yuan to participate in the strategic placement of Von Tech's scientific innovation board IPO, obtaining about 3% of the shares. Third, self built battery plants can quickly meet the needs of vehicles for batteries. BMW will independently develop the cell, and plans to double the energy density of the cell by 2030.

3、 Analysis on the reasons why automobile enterprises compete to arrange battery plants

At present, mainstream car enterprises such as Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen and Tesla have increased investment in the battery field and established battery plants in many places around the world. In particular, the outbreak of the epidemic this year has seriously affected the battery supply, which has further urged automobile enterprises to speed up the layout of the battery field. In the final analysis, it is important for OEMs to build their own battery plants to meet their own needs. The important reasons include the following:

1. Ensure long-term stable battery supply by means of shareholding in battery manufacturers and self built battery plants, and ensure the normal operation of the production line even in case of emergencies.

2. Greatly reduce the production cost of the whole vehicle. As mentioned above, the cost of power lithium battery accounts for about 40% of the cost of the whole vehicle. The self built battery factory eliminates the intermediate price increase, and can also withstand the risks of insufficient supply of battery companies and rising prices of materials.

3. It can perfectly adapt to the vehicle. The battery is designed and produced at the same time as the vehicle, which enables the vehicle enterprises to change the shape of the battery and reduce the development cost according to the design requirements of the vehicle during the modification or introduction of new models. At the same time, the battery is fully adapted to the vehicle, which can reduce the occurrence of safety problems.

4. It can provide more convenience for the development and use of subsequent charging products.

5. To improve the efficiency of battery supervision, we can improve the late service and continuously optimize relevant technologies through monitoring data.

6. It is conducive to the realization of unified battery standards and subsequent battery recycling and cascade utilization.

4、 The market tug of war of power lithium battery is about to start

From the current form, it has become a future trend for auto enterprises to build their own battery plants and independently develop battery technologies. Auto enterprises and battery companies will compete and cooperate on the market in terms of material innovation and process innovation. High energy density, stability and safety are the development goals of power lithium batteries in the future. Cobalt free, single crystal, new electrolyte additives, silicon nanowires and other new technologies and materials will provide new ideas for automobile enterprises to research and develop. In the long run, the idea of improving quality and reducing cost will force the technology to achieve continuous optimization, and the future core product strength will determine the market position of power lithium battery company.

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