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After soaring prices in 2015, the power lithium ion battery industry entered a high-speed expansion mode in 2016. It is estimated that by the end of 2016, the output of new power lithium-ion batteries could increase by 120% year on year.

In fact, as the most important downstream market of power lithium-ion batteries, power vehicles, ushered in the year of adjustment, power lithium-ion batteries once again faced the dilemma of rising inventory, falling prices and tight funds in 2016.

This year, the power lithium ion battery industry has staged a roller coaster market. Before the middle of April, the tail raising factor of the soaring sales of new energy vehicles at the end of last year led to the shortage of upstream material output, and the price of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate soared; Since late April, the policy adjustment of new energy vehicles has come unexpectedly, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected. The High tech Industry Research Institute predicted that the output of new energy vehicles in 2016 was about 450000, up 32% year on year, far from the growth rate of 2 to 3 times last year.

The oversupply of power lithium-ion batteries began to highlight, and the industry entered the stage of price competition. As of November 13, the cumulative drop of lithium hexafluorophosphate from the highest price was more than 50%, and the cumulative drop of battery grade lithium carbonate from the highest price was more than 20%.

"On the one hand, it is policy regulation, and on the other hand, it is the self growth of the industry. With the production of new production and stricter supervision, low-end repetitive production faces elimination or price competition." Gao Xiaobing, a lithium battery analyst at the High Industry Research Institute, believes that after the implementation of the new energy vehicle policy in 2017, the power lithium-ion battery industry will return to the rapid development period, but the domestic lithium battery industry will begin to "polarize" and integrate. The rise will be mainly concentrated in companies with large output, large working capital and continuous technological progress, and speculators will face elimination.

It is reported that the first half of 2017 is the intensive production period of upstream materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, wet membrane, etc., when the power lithium ion battery market will be tested.

However, many companies are more optimistic.

Du Wenlong, Director of the Comprehensive Enterprise Management Department of Zhejiang Chaowei Chuangyuan Industry Co., Ltd., believes that before 2020, the power lithium-ion battery industry will co-exist. Some battery factories cannot sell batteries, and some car factories cannot buy batteries, because it depends on the development of electric vehicles. In general, the output of power lithium-ion batteries will not be excessive within 10 years, because new energy vehicles are still developing at a high speed.

The investment power of Power Lithium Ion Battery Company also comes from planning guidance. According to the Technical Route for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles, the number of new energy vehicles in 2015 reached 500000. By 2020, the number of new energy vehicles will be 5 million, and the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total number of vehicles will increase from 1.5% in 2015 to 7% to 10%. By 2030, the proportion of new energy vehicles will reach 40% to 50%.

Zhou Shunwu, general manager of Tianci Materials Battery Materials Business Department, believes that the production of high-end power lithium-ion batteries with "reliable technology and consistent quality" will not be excessive. Ruan Yiliang, head of the lithium battery market department of AVIC, a subsidiary of Chengfei Integration, said that the rapid expansion of the production of power lithium ion batteries would affect the material system and standardization of power lithium ion batteries. However, in general, power lithium ion batteries are not surplus.

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