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"In the first half of the year, we conducted a centralized survey of the electrical industry. Except for the power generation equipment industry, there was no obvious sharp decline in other fields. The industry's concentration ratio was further improved, and the financial pressure we faced was also relatively large." On September 14, Bai Wenbo, the deputy secretary general of the China Electrical Appliance Industry Association, disclosed that "many private companies in Zhejiang had their credit lines cancelled, and tens of millions of yuan of loans had to be submitted to the provincial bank for approval."

The lead-acid battery industry is experiencing this scene.

The lead-acid battery industry, which already has excess production and the market is being squeezed by lithium-ion batteries, and the comprehensive cost, including lead prices, is constantly rising. Although the year-on-year output value increased in the first half of the year, profits have significantly decreased.

Where is the way out for the unprecedented pressure in the lead-acid battery industry?

Lebensraum shrinks sharply

China is the largest producer, consumer, and exporter of lead-acid batteries, accounting for about one-third of the world's total production. This is the most common impression left by the industry to the public.

In recent years, despite the implementation of market access policies and clean production under environmental pressure, the industry environment of lead-acid batteries has not been improved due to overcapacity, low price competition, insufficient high-end products, shortage of high-end talents, tight employment, and rising lead prices. The policy and market environment they face has also become increasingly harsh.

In addition to the aggressive lithium-ion batteries, liquid flow batteries, fuel power batteries, sodium salt batteries, nickel hydrogen batteries, and others are also eyeing. Under the siege of multiple parties, the lead-acid battery industry, whose market space has been severely compressed, is facing an unprecedented crisis.

According to Yi Xiaobo, Deputy Director of Shenyang Battery Research Institute, driven by national policies, the industry growth rates of lithium-ion batteries in China have been 368%, 324%, and 78.6% since 2014. Currently, there are nearly 200 domestic lithium-ion battery production companies, with a total output of over 170GWh.

In 2017, the shipment volume of power lithium batteries in China was only 37.06 GWh, and it is expected that the demand for lithium-ion batteries in 2018 will be around 42.4 GWh, with a production utilization rate of only 40%.

If a new energy vehicle is equipped with a 50kWh battery, the total production of existing lithium-ion batteries can be assembled to about 3.5 million vehicles. Even if according to the plan, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2 million in 2020, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is only about 100GWh.

Therefore, excess production of lithium-ion batteries has become a foregone conclusion, but a large number of power lithium-ion battery projects were completed and put into operation in 2018. One of the directions for digesting excess production is the existing market for lead-acid batteries, "said Yi Xiaobo.

The biggest impact comes from the power lithium battery market.

The mandatory national standard for safety technical specifications of electric bicycles, which will be officially implemented on April 15, 2019, as well as the upcoming "Low speed four-wheel vehicle standard" and "Electric express transport vehicle standard", have also provided favorable conditions for the rapid entry of lithium-ion batteries, while lead-acid batteries face the risk of being eliminated in the field of electric bicycles and low-speed electric vehicles.

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