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LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, this week's Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome. During his testimony in Congress, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes and raise interest rates above earlier expectations, exacerbating concerns about economic activity and global demand for industrial metals. China's CPI fell slightly in February, with a year-on-year increase of 1%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month; The recovery of industrial enterprises' production has accelerated, market demand has improved, and PPI remained unchanged month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The year-on-year decrease was 0.6 percentage points larger than last month.

In terms of supply: The newly built pure nickel production capacity still needs to be released, and domestic smelters also have incremental expectations. The tight supply of pure nickel has eased, and since the beginning of the year, the supply of nickel in the market has been significantly sufficient. It is expected that pure nickel production will be in a climbing state in March. After the news of mixed pricing of Russian nickel was released last week, it is expected that import inflows will increase.

In terms of demand: Although the contradiction in stainless steel supply is difficult to solve at the moment, it has also forced some enterprises to initiate maintenance plans in advance, and last week, stainless steel was slightly removed from the warehouse, indicating a rebound in demand; According to data, the global sales of new energy vehicles in January 2023 were 658000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a penetration rate of 12.1%, and China accounting for 56.9%. At the same time, policies help stimulate demand, and the expected increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles in the market remains unchanged.

In summary, the current nickel price has reached the cost line of nickel sulfate preparation for electrowinning nickel, which may temporarily support the nickel price. However, there is a strong expectation for Russian nickel imports, and there has been no disturbance to domestic refined nickel smelting. The overall supply increment expectation remains unchanged for the time being. During the peak season of gold, silver, and silver, consumer demand slowly rebounded. The short-term macro market suppresses metal prices, leading to a double increase in supply and demand. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate at low levels in the short term.

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