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01. The pain of lithium battery cost

With the booming of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for power lithium battery has increased greatly, and lithium battery dominates the world in the technical route of power lithium battery. The surge in downstream demand has also brought about a continuous rise in the price of raw materials in the upstream of lithium battery industry. In recent years, the appearance of nicknames such as "Li Da Ye" and "Cobalt Grandma" is a reflection of the soaring price of upstream raw materials.

Take lithium carbonate, the raw material of lithium battery cathode, as an example. In September, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded the 500000/ton mark. According to statistics, the spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 40000 yuan/ton on September 30, 2020. Two years later, the price has soared to more than 500000 yuan/ton, up more than ten times.

Price trend of battery grade lithium carbonate

(Source: USGS, Baichuan Yingfu, Soochow Securities Research Institute)

The soaring price of raw materials has brought ultra-high performance to the mining companies in the upstream of the industrial chain, but also caused the pressure on the profitability of the middle and downstream battery companies and vehicle companies, and the decline in the profitability of battery manufacturers and new energy vehicle companies. Since March 2022, nearly 20 new energy vehicle manufacturers have issued price increase notices to cope with the pressure of rising costs.

The tight supply of lithium resources has restricted the development of lithium battery industry to a certain extent. It is an urgent need to find lithium battery replacement technology. Under the cost anxiety of lithium battery, the sodium ion battery has attracted much attention. The sodium ion battery, known as the ten-thousand-year spare tire, may usher in its second spring. According to the analysis of relevant institutions, the industrialization process of domestic sodium ion battery manufacturers is advancing rapidly, more than the mass production in 2022-2023. It is expected that the sodium battery technology and material system will be basically finalized by the end of this year, and 2023 will become the first year of sodium battery industrialization, realizing small batch shipments, and mass production in 2024.

02. Sodium ion batteries have cost advantages in theory

The sodium ion battery was first proposed in the 1980s. Its working principle is similar to that of lithium battery, and it has its own unique advantages. Sodium ion batteries have better safety, discharge and operating temperature range. The sodium ion battery can discharge to 0V when discharging, and there is no safety problem faced by lithium battery under the same condition; The ionic conductivity of sodium salt electrolyte with the same concentration is higher than that of lithium salt electrolyte, which determines that the sodium ion battery has better fast charging performance; The low temperature performance of the sodium ion battery is more excellent. In the low temperature environment of - 20 ℃, it also has a discharge retention rate of more than 88%.

The reserves of sodium resources are abundant, and the upstream materials of positive electrode are cheap and stable. Compared with lithium resources, sodium resources are very rich, and the sodium in the crust is 423 times that of lithium. The higher abundance of sodium resources ensures the lower price of raw materials upstream of cathode materials. According to the data of Zhongkehai Sodium, the cost of copper-based cathode for sodium ion batteries can be reduced by nearly 60% compared with lithium iron phosphate cathode; At the same time, because sodium and aluminum are not easy to occur alloying reaction, aluminum foil can be used to replace copper foil for all fluid collectors, and the cost can be reduced by nearly 70%. According to comprehensive calculation, the cost of sodium ion battery can be reduced by about 30% - 40% compared with lithium iron phosphate battery with similar performance. In addition, both sodium and lithium batteries are rocking chair type secondary batteries, and they have similar properties in chemical reactions. The high similarity of the structure determines that the production process and production line of the two are close, and the production line can be shared in the future to reduce the construction cost of the production line.

At present, it is difficult to reduce the price of lithium battery upstream materials in a short time. From the perspective of cost, if the sodium ion battery is quickly landed, it may alleviate the cost anxiety of battery manufacturers to some extent.

Cost comparison of sodium ion battery and lithium battery

(Data source: Zhongkehai Sodium)

Production process of sodium ion battery

(Source: Guoxin Securities Research Institute)

03. At present, the cost of sodium ion battery is not cheap

However, the cost advantage of sodium ion battery is only reflected in theory at present. At this stage, compared with the lithium battery which has been mature and has reduced a lot of costs by large-scale production, the sodium ion battery has not actually had the cost advantage. The cost of sodium ion battery will decrease with the maturity of technology and the expansion of production scale in the future. However, in a short period of time, the cost advantage of sodium ion battery compared with lithium battery may not be obvious.

Some insiders believe that as the technology of lithium battery will also improve, the cost will also decline, and the current price of lithium carbonate is at a high level. Once entering the decline channel, it means that the price of lithium iron phosphate battery will rapidly decline. In order to gain the advantage of cost performance at a certain point in the future, the process of sodium ion battery must be faster than the price decline of lithium iron phosphate battery.

At present, the production cost of sodium ion batteries is still relatively high. After the promotion of small batches, a certain amount of output can be gradually released in the next two or three years, and the cost performance ratio will appear. At present, the expectation of the market for sodium ion battery depends largely on its theoretical cost advantage. The cost advantage appears in the comparison. Due to the soaring price of lithium carbonate, the key raw material of lithium battery, the advantage of sodium ion battery is magnified to a certain extent.

04. The development of industry standard for sodium ion battery is accelerating

The sodium-ion battery industry is developing well, but as a substitute for lithium battery, the long-term development of the sodium-ion battery industry is also questioned. Some industry insiders pointed out that the fall of lithium battery price and the development of lithium battery recycling industry in the future may restrict the development of sodium battery.

Although there are doubts, the industrial policies and standards related to sodium ion batteries are accelerating to improve. Since 2021, the Energy Administration, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have successively published the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage, the Implementation Methods for the Development of New Energy Storage in the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, and the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy, all of which refer to promoting the development of sodium ion battery technology.

Recently, the official website of the Institute of Electronic Technology Standardization of China also published the Notice on Soliciting Opinions on the Industry Standard for Sodium Ion Batteries (Draft 1). The Notice pointed out that the drafting group of the standard for sodium ion batteries had completed the preparation of the first draft for comments and requested relevant units to give feedback before October 23. With regard to the solicitation of opinions on the sodium-ion battery industry standard (draft 1), some analysts believe that the promotion of the development of the sodium-ion battery industry standard will help the domestic sodium-ion battery industry accelerate its leap from 0 to 1.

From the positive signals released by the industry at present, the commercialization of sodium ion batteries is gradually approaching. 2023 and 2025 may be an important time point for the mass production and implementation of sodium ion batteries and the start of the industrialization process. At that time, it will drive the rapid development of the entire industry chain of sodium ion batteries.

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