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With the arrival of orders from battery companies in the field of energy storage, the concept stocks of lithium battery for energy storage have soared recently.

On October 21, the energy storage sector continued to strengthen, and the share prices of several lithium battery manufacturers continued to rise after the previous two days' limit.

The stock price revelry of related companies also stems from the rumor that the energy storage company has suspended the order. It is rumored that since the end of September, battery supply has been in short supply, and it is quite common for energy storage companies to suspend orders. On October 21, the reporter of Shell Finance and Economics of the Beijing News called the securities department of several lithium battery manufacturers, such as Costa, Penghui Energy and Baolixin, and their relevant staff said that the shortage of supply has lasted for a year, but it has not reached the level of shortage for the time being. If the energy storage orders continue to rise at a high speed in the future and the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, there may be a shortage of market supply.

What is in demand is the 280Ah large battery cell, which is mismatched in supply and demand, and the actual output of energy storage battery fails to meet the market demand

Energy storage battery is an important carrier of electrochemical energy storage. It completes the process of energy storage, release and management through battery. At present, lithium battery is the most mature and widely used energy storage battery. According to the information disclosed by the industry at present, the energy storage battery is in short supply, and the important shortage is 280Ah large battery cells.

In the energy storage battery market, large energy storage is an important application market. The battery cells are mainly more than 280Ah, developing towards larger capacity, low cost, long life and high safety; The household storage is mainly composed of small cells below 100Ah, which are packaged in cylindrical, soft package and square shell. It is reported that the 280Ah cell was first introduced by CATL in 2020 and has become the standard configuration for the construction of energy storage projects. The purchase of energy storage batteries generally requires that the single cell capacity reach 280Ah and above.

Compared with small-capacity battery, 280Ah large battery cell has obvious advantages: first, high energy density, reduced use of parts, and prominent cost advantages; Second, the safety of large-capacity battery cells has been significantly improved, which is more advantageous in the application of long-term energy storage scenarios; Third, the management difficulty of the BMS of large capacity battery is relatively low.

Why is there a shortage of battery supply in the energy storage industry? Merco, the chief analyst of Zhenli Research, said that the demand for lithium batteries, including energy storage, would rise rapidly in all major markets, and the supply could not keep pace with the growth of demand.

On the one hand, the production of upstream raw materials did not keep up with the rising demand of power lithium batteries, and the release of upstream raw materials took a long time, resulting in a huge planned production of power lithium batteries, but the actual production did not meet the market demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand; Secondly, the production expansion of power lithium battery companies is relatively cautious.

In addition, the current energy storage market has not reached the stage of large-scale development, and the energy storage battery is not the preferred choice for the battery manufacturers to ship. The battery companies have insufficient prediction of the energy storage market, and the output is mainly in the supply power market.

The lithium battery industry in the future is likely to face the situation of insufficient high-quality production and backward production surplus. Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, said that the supply of products with large capacity of 280Ah and large battery cells was in short supply, which was an obvious example; At present, large-capacity battery cells may still face a situation of stage-wise supply exceeding demand in the future.

It is generally believed in the industry that the mitigation of energy storage battery market supply depends on supply and demand in the medium term and economy in the long term; Fundamentally, the problem of supply and demand mismatch still needs to be solved, but it will take a long time to fully release the output.

Powered lithium battery giants have launched intensive moves to compete for energy storage circuit

Behind the shortage of energy storage batteries is the explosion of the energy storage market. CITIC Securities predicts that in the second half of 2022, domestic energy storage projects will be implemented on a large scale, and overseas energy storage demand will rise rapidly; The compound annual growth rate of the global energy storage market will remain above 60% in the next five years. At present, battery companies, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, China Innovation Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Xinwangda, Funeng Technology, etc., all carry out production layout in the field of energy storage.

On October 20, Yiwei Lithium announced the LF560K energy storage battery and said that the LF560K energy storage battery is expected to start global delivery in the second quarter of 2024. On the same day, Guoxuan Hi-Tech announced that it had won the order of 600MWh energy storage battery of China's electric power, with the winning amount of about 800 million yuan; Guoxuan Hi-Tech said that the above energy storage projects will help deepen the strategic cooperation with large power companies, enhance the influence in the energy storage market and promote the expansion of energy storage business.

On October 18, CATL announced that it had reached an agreement with PrimergySolar LLC, a US utility and distributed photovoltaic+energy storage development operator, to supply batteries exclusively for Gemini photovoltaic+energy storage project with a total investment of 1.2 billion dollars. On October 9, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Sumida planned to carry out all-round cooperation in the field of energy storage; The energy storage projects that the two sides will cooperate in the next three years are expected to be 10GWh.

At same time, power lithium battery company is also accelerating production expansion. On September 28, CATL announced to invest in the construction of Luoyang new energy battery production base project in Yibin District, Luoyang City, Henan Province. On September 27th, Yiwei Lithium announced that it had signed an investment agreement with the Shenyang Municipal People's Government and the Shenyang Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee on energy storage and power lithium battery projects; May Yiwei Lithium once signed an agreement with Yuxi High-tech Zone of Yunnan Province on matters related to the investment and construction of lithium battery production projects, and built a 10GWh power storage battery project.

In addition, the energy storage battery has also been explicitly mentioned in the recent production expansion announcement issued by Blue Lithium, Funeng Technology and Xinwanda; The Beijing News Shell Financial reporter roughly calculated the investment of major power lithium battery companies in energy storage and expansion during the year, and found that the total investment scale was close to 300 billion yuan; By the end of September, the cumulative total output of energy storage battery related projects this year exceeded 800GWh.

Qi Haishen said that the reason why the power lithium battery company expanded its output was that the difference between the power lithium battery cell and the energy storage cell was obvious. The power lithium battery pursues high energy density and has low requirements for life; The energy storage battery pursues long life, high consistency and low requirements for high power, so the co-line production is also less and less.

In fact, the energy storage business has become the second rising curve of power lithium battery. Taking CATL as an example, although the third quarter report of this year did not mention the revenue of the energy storage business, it said that the energy storage business was developing rapidly; In the first half of this year, the revenue of CATL energy storage system was 12.736 billion yuan, up 171.41% year on year, accounting for more than 11% of the company's total revenue.

The market size may exceed 3 trillion yuan, and sodium ion batteries or improve the situation of energy storage batteries in short supply

The Implementation Method for the Development of New Energy Storage in the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan released in March this year clearly pointed out that by 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. At present, many provinces have announced new energy allocation and storage policies, and the trend of allocation and storage is clear. With regard to energy storage batteries, the Institute of Advanced Industry predicts that the global shipment of energy storage batteries will be close to 500GWh by 2025, and 2300GWh by 2030, with a market size of more than 3 trillion.

In the face of trillions of market space, power lithium battery companies have set off an upsurge of expansion. Qi Haishen said that to build a new type of power system with new energy as the main body, the energy storage will be the standard configuration, and the space for the energy storage market has been opened. It is likely that there will be more than 300GWh demand in the next five years. However, Qi Haishen believes that in order to make further investment in lithium battery industry at this stage, we should first clarify the positioning of new products, ensure that there are market opportunities for products, and accurately subdivide the application market; For example, focus on a product with lithium power cell and energy storage performance.

In addition, it is worth noting that the industry believes that the arrival of the first year of mass production of sodium ion batteries may improve the situation of energy storage batteries in short supply to some extent. CATL said that it was promoting the industrialization of sodium ion batteries next year; Penghui Energy also said that it hoped to promote the mass production of sodium ion batteries next year.

Northeast Securities believes that the prospect of sodium ion battery in the energy storage market is relatively broad; Caitong Securities believes that the demand for sodium ion batteries in the energy storage field will rise from 0GWh in 2021 to 48.74GWh in 2025; In 2025, more than 66% of sodium ion batteries will be used for energy storage.

Merco believes that the energy density of the sodium ion battery is slightly low, and the price must be relatively lower before there is a market. Therefore, in the market where energy storage and other markets pay more attention to the cost of the battery but do not pay much attention to the volume and weight of the battery, as long as the comprehensive cost performance is relatively better, it can replace the lithium battery to a certain extent.

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