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While the installed capacity of the domestic power lithium-ion battery companies, such as Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Lishen Battery, Funeng Technology, Bike Power, Yiwei Lithium, AVIC Lithium and Kanai New Energy, has reached a new high, it has also driven the huge demand of the four major material markets, and many material companies with technical advantages are in short supply, and the revenue performance is rising.

Top 10 domestic power lithium-ion battery installed companies in 2018 (unit: GWh)

(Source: Power Lithium Ion Battery Application Branch)

Electrolyte demand: 125000 tons

Recently, New Zebang announced its performance report, saying that the company expects to achieve revenue of 2.163 billion yuan in 2018, up 19.14% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 323 million yuan, up 15.49% year on year. New Zebang said that the company's lithium-ion battery chemicals benefited from the continuous rise of the domestic new energy vehicle market, and sales orders continued to increase, driving the company's operating income to rise steadily.

Previously, New Zebang said in an investor survey that the proportion of lithium ion battery electrolyte supplied by domestic companies in the global market share has been increasing in recent years, and has now exceeded that of Japanese and Korean companies. New Zebang said that in the next few years, the company will expand the output of the existing lithium-ion battery electrolyte business, and deeply cultivate high-quality key customers in the industry to meet their production expansion needs.

Another electrolyte company, Kunlun Chemical, said to the Battery China Network that "benefiting from the prosperity of the lithium-ion battery market for new energy vehicles, the company's electrolyte orders are in short supply." At present, the new project of Huzhou Base has been launched, with a total design output of 40000 tons/year. It is understood that Kunlun Chemical has established long-term cooperative relations with many companies such as Funeng Technology, CITIC, UNITA and Guli, and became a supplier of Ningde era in 2018.

It can be imagined that with the rapid rise of the electric vehicle market in China, the demand for electrolyte will also increase rapidly after 2019 after the explosion of the ternary battery market. According to experts' prediction, by 2020, China's demand for lithium ion battery electrolyte will reach about 125000 tons.

Cathode material demand: 402000 tons

Not long ago, Dangsheng Technology, the leading material company, also received a gratifying forecast. The expected net profit in 2018 was 300 million to 300 million yuan, up 19.92% - 31.91% year on year, of which the net profit after deduction was 285 million to 315 million yuan, up 95.42% - 115.9% year on year. Dangsheng Technology said that the increase in performance was due to the continuous growth of the cathode material business, the full release of new production, the rapid expansion of new products, and the substantial increase in sales revenue and profit year-on-year.

It is reported that Dangsheng Technology has a total annual output of 16000 tons of cathode materials. "Due to the strong demand for orders, the production line is still in short supply at full capacity". In order to meet the continuous demand of the market, Dangsheng Technology has started the construction of two major production bases, Jiangsu Haimen Phase III and Changzhou New Material Base, and the new production will be completed and put into operation from 2019. The new output will mainly be high nickel multi-component materials, which can produce NCM811/NCA, NCM622, NCM523 and other full-model power multi-component materials.

According to industry estimates, China's demand for cathode materials is expected to reach 402000 tons by 2020. Among them, the demand for ternary cathode materials reached 144200 tons, and the demand for high-nickel ternary cathode materials was 97500 tons. The permeability of high-nickel ternary cathode materials increased significantly. In the future, there is still a huge gap in the supply of high-end cathode materials in China. High-nickel 811 and customized cathode materials have become the direction for large manufacturers to promote production expansion.

Diaphragm demand: 2.7 billion square meters

Not only the electrolyte and cathode materials, but also the diaphragm, the key material of lithium-ion battery, has a strong market demand. Dinghao New Material said in an interview with China Battery Network recently, "At present, the company can't meet the demand of the existing customer group, so it decided to invest in building a new factory in Maanshan, Anhui. In view of the market situation in 2019, the company also distributed samples in many places in South China and Central China, and there will be another wave of orders in 2019."

Dinghao New Materials said that in the first half of 2018, the company won an 80 mu land in Maanshan, Anhui Province in cooperation with the local government, and will build factories and branch factories here. It is expected that it will be put into production in the second half of 2019. It is expected that 20 high-speed coating production lines will be placed, with an annual output of 250 million square meters, which can well cooperate with major domestic lithium ion battery manufacturers.

Another diaphragm company, Xingyuan Material, also said to the battery website, "The company's current order is in a relatively saturated state, and there is not much surplus production. With the release of production, it will gradually increase the cooperation of new excellent customers in the industry, and the overall expansion and customer demand can reach a balance in a short time."

It is reported that while maintaining the leading position of dry method, Xingyuan material will focus on wet diaphragm. At present, the important new investment and production expansion plan of Xingyuan Materials are mainly in Changzhou. Eight new wet lines, eight dry lines and one billion square meters of coating output are added. The total investment is expected to be nearly 5 billion yuan. After the production, the diaphragm delivery output will reach 1.2 billion square meters per year.

The data shows that the domestic diaphragm market demand has maintained a market growth rate of more than 30% since 2011, and the market demand in 2017 reached 1.516 billion square meters. Industry analysis pointed out that the lithium ion battery separator industry still has good demand potential in the future, and it is expected that the market size will reach 2.7 billion square meters by 2020.

Negative material demand: 190000 tons

In terms of negative electrode materials, China's negative electrode material market continued to show an upward trend in 2018, with the growth rate basically equal to that in 2017, and the increment is still considerable. According to the statistics of Xinlun Information, China's output of negative electrode materials in 2018 was 252800 tons, up 28.98% on a month-on-month basis. It is particularly worth mentioning that since 2018, many companies, including Lishen Battery, have made breakthroughs in the technology of high-nickel NCM811 and NCA batteries, driving the application of silicon carbon anode materials.

According to China Battery Network, Beiteri, Shanshan, Jiangxi Zichen, Snow Industry, Xingcheng Graphite, Jiangxi Zhengtuo, Chuangya Power, Dalian Lichang, etc. are actively promoting the industrialization of silicon carbon anode. In addition, according to institutional analysis, the consumption of needle coke in the negative electrode material market reached a new high in 2018, but at present its important profit point is the graphite electrode market. In general, the demand for lithium anode materials will continue to rise in the future.

Driven by the continuous demand for new energy vehicles, some institutions predict that by 2020, the global demand for lithium ion battery cathode materials will be about 190000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 22%. It is estimated that by 2020, the domestic demand for power lithium-ion batteries will be about 94GWh, and the corresponding demand for anode materials will be about 70000 tons; By 2025, the domestic demand for power lithium-ion batteries will reach 310GWh, and the corresponding demand for anode materials will reach 190000 tons.

To sum up, the market demand for positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte will be in an explosive trend in the future. Many companies are producing at full capacity, and presumably the market competition will also be very fierce. Under the large-scale "order bomb" bombing, the four major material companies should be ready to "fight" early!

Original title: 700000 tons+2.7 billion square meters! Positive/negative/diaphragm/electrolyte companies will encounter "order bomb"

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