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Considering the current production status and psychological expectations of various upstream and downstream links, and taking into account the cumulative inventory level of lithium carbonate, it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will exhibit range fluctuations, accompanied by a slight downward space.
Lithium ore
This week, lithium ore prices remained stable and weakened compared to last week due to the downward trend of lithium carbonate prices. In terms of spodumene, the supply side continues to maintain a high price attitude, but due to the fluctuation of lithium carbonate prices, the demand side has a general attitude towards receiving higher priced spodumene, resulting in a downward trend in prices. However, due to the increase in the operating rate of lithium salt plants this month, the demand for spodumene is at a high level, so the overall decline in lithium ore prices is weaker than that of lithium salt prices. In terms of lithium mica, the current quotations from small and medium-sized lithium mica suppliers have not changed much compared to last week. In order to maintain production pace, some non integrated salt factories have a strong demand for corresponding high prices, which further leads to the maintenance of the current price of lithium mica.
Overall, the price of lithium ore will show a weakening trend with the price of lithium carbonate, but due to the current limited market liquidity, the reaction rate is lower than that of lithium carbonate.
Lithium carbonate
This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, with a drop of around 400 yuan/ton. From the current market transaction situation, it can be seen that as the end of the year approaches, downstream material factories are only focusing on essential purchases due to inventory control, and the overall purchasing sentiment is relatively cold. The inventory level of traders is high, and some traders are using lower price points to promote transactions with downstream enterprises in order to withdraw funds from inventory, thus dragging the center of gravity of lithium carbonate spot transaction prices downward. The upstream lithium salt plant is currently approaching the time point of long-term agreement negotiations, and the sentiment of raising prices is relatively strong. From the perspective of December demand, the inventory reduction of lithium carbonate in December will significantly narrow compared to the previous month, and it is expected that the inventory level of lithium carbonate will remain stable. Considering the current production status and psychological expectations of various upstream and downstream links, and taking into account the cumulative inventory level of lithium carbonate, it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will exhibit range fluctuations, accompanied by a slight downward space.
Lithium hydroxide
This week, the price of lithium hydroxide slightly increased compared to last week. On the supply side, most lithium salt factories maintain their previous high price attitude, with weak willingness to ship individual orders below 70000 yuan/ton; On the demand side, in mid December, some ternary material factories engaged in purchasing activities outside of long-term contracts for pre year stocking, resulting in a certain increase in transaction prices compared to early December, further supporting the upward trend of market prices. In addition, due to the inconsistent psychological discounts between upstream and downstream, there is currently no bulk agreement on the discount for the new one-year contract in the market, and there is a certain expectation of an upward trend at present.
Overall, with a slight increase in demand for upstream emissions reduction this month, the price of lithium hydroxide will continue to fluctuate within a range.
Electrolytic cobalt
The price of electrolytic cobalt has remained stable this week. From the supply side, the operating rate of electrolytic cobalt smelters remains stable at present. From the downstream demand side, the willingness of terminal purchases during the week is relatively weak. From the overall market situation, due to the fact that most electrolytic cobalt smelters currently rely on long-term delivery, their willingness to lower prices is relatively weak. It is expected that the overall market supply and demand pattern will remain unchanged next week, and spot prices may remain deadlocked.
Cobalt intermediate
The price of cobalt intermediate products has remained stable this week. From the supply side, the current arrival volume at the port is sustained, and there is sufficient social supply. From the downstream demand side, due to the low profits of cobalt smelters, cobalt salts are often used as substitutes, resulting in a decline in demand for cobalt raw material procurement. Based on the overall market situation, the bearish outlook in the short-term market remains unchanged, and with supply exceeding demand, there may still be a possibility of a downward trend in spot prices.
Cobalt salts (cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride)
The price of cobalt intermediate products has remained stable this week. From the supply side, the current arrival volume at the port is sustained, and there is sufficient social supply. From the downstream demand side, due to the low profits of cobalt smelters, cobalt salts are often used as substitutes, resulting in a decline in demand for cobalt raw material procurement. Based on the overall market situation, the bearish outlook in the short-term market remains unchanged, and with supply exceeding demand, there may still be a possibility of a downward trend in spot prices.
Cobalt salt (cobalt trioxide)
This week, the price of cobalt trioxide has temporarily stabilized. From the supply side, the operating rate of cobalt oxide smelters remains stable, and the overall supply has not changed much. From the demand side, individual inquiries are still relatively quiet, and the overall market presents a weak supply-demand situation. It is expected that next week, the price of raw cobalt salts will continue to decline, leading to a weakening of cost support for cobalt oxide. In addition, with weak demand, there is still some room for decline in spot prices.
Nickel sulfate
As of today, the SMM battery grade nickel sulfate index price is reported at 26255 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery grade nickel sulfate is between 25910 and 26830 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as yesterday. From a cost perspective, LME London nickel prices have slightly rebounded to $16025 per ton today, indicating stronger cost support. In terms of demand, this week has entered the stage of previous rigid procurement, but the procurement pace of precursor enterprises is relatively slow, and the overall hoarding sentiment is still weak. From the supply side, the degree of cost inversion in salt factories has intensified, and the upward trend in prices has noticeably intensified since Monday of this week. The market is currently in a game between buyers and sellers, and market transactions remain at a relatively low level. It is expected that the game will continue in the short term, and the price of nickel sulfate will remain stable.
Ternary precursor
This week, the consumer prices of the 5 and 6 series of ternary precursors have slightly decreased, while the price of the 8 series powertrain has slightly increased. In terms of raw materials, the price of nickel sulfate remains stable, while the prices of cobalt sulfate and manganese sulfate have slightly weakened. The downward trend in the prices of cobalt sulfate and manganese sulfate has had an impact on the support of the cost of ternary precursors. From a demand perspective, the production schedule for ternary materials this month has increased compared to November, with a month on month increase of about 3%, indicating a slight rebound in demand. However, from the supply side, this week has passed the critical point of essential procurement, and the activity of the ternary precursor mainly executes long orders, while the activity of the individual order market has weakened. Overall, the price of nickel sulfate is expected to rise slightly based on the upward trend of the cost line, while the cost of precursors is expected to strengthen. This trend may drive a slight increase in precursor prices in the future.
Ternary material
From the perspective of raw materials, the price changes of metal sulfates this week were relatively small, with only manganese sulfate prices showing a relatively large downward trend compared to last week. In terms of lithium salts, the price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate and decline this week; The price of lithium hydroxide has also shifted from the previous continuous rise to stabilization. At the beginning of this week, the price of ternary materials was driven down by the decline in lithium carbonate prices, but due to the stable price of lithium hydroxide, the price of high nickel ternary materials was well supported. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic ternary material manufacturers in December remained at a high level in November. Due to the increase in year-end orders, some enterprises are expected to have a slight increase in production in December compared to November. But currently, the operating rate of overseas ternary material factories is still relatively low, and the production in December is expected to have a slight decline compared to the previous month. On the demand side, downstream battery factories still have high demand at the end of the year. Although the total output of ternary battery cell factories is expected to decline in December, the expected magnitude of the decline is still small, and the industry's prosperity is relatively hot compared to previous years.
Lithium iron phosphate
This week, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate enterprises remained at a high level, and the lithium iron phosphate market continued to move forward on a high prosperity track, with no signs of a decline in orders. In December, the lithium iron phosphate market showed strong demand and production stability. For the January production plan, if downstream battery cell factories continue to maintain good orders, it is highly likely that the top lithium iron phosphate enterprises will not take a holiday during the Spring Festival to ensure production. In terms of processing fees, there is currently no latest news on the bidding for lithium iron phosphate. The positive electrode factory will incur significant losses in 2024 and strongly demands an increase in processing fees for 2025.
Iron phosphate
The iron phosphate market showed a clear upward trend in December. Affected by the tight supply of ammonium and the continuous rise in prices, the cost of ammonium phosphate iron continues to increase, and the quotation has been raised accordingly. In addition, the prices of iron phosphate and sodium phosphate iron phosphate have also risen synchronously with market trends. With the high price of phosphoric acid, the shortage of high-quality iron phosphate supply is further highlighted. The demand for iron phosphate in downstream lithium iron phosphate is also steadily increasing. Most iron phosphate enterprises are facing the challenge of short-term production capacity shortage, and the shift in supply and demand has given them the confidence to raise prices. Overall, cost push and demand pull work together in the market, and the price of iron phosphate shows a clear upward trend.
Lithium cobalt oxide
The market price of lithium cobalt oxide remained stable this week. On the supply side, lithium cobalt oxide production increased by 4% month on month in November, and production is expected to slightly decline in December. The current lithium cobalt oxide market is mainly driven by rigid demand, with relatively stable production plans and high market concentration. In terms of demand, due to the limited release of new products in the digital 3C field at the end of the year, downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on actual demand, with low stocking enthusiasm and only maintaining necessary safety stock levels. It is expected that the price of lithium cobalt oxide will continue to show a downward trend in the future.
negative pole
The negative electrode material market has been weak this week. In terms of cost, low sulfur petroleum coke benefits from the growth of downstream demand, with good refinery shipments and strong willingness to raise prices. Therefore, the price will continue to rise this week; With the gradual introduction of new production capacity and the increase in supply, some enterprises have lowered their quotations for oil-based needle coke production; Although the outsourcing of graphitization has been accompanied by the peak season of negative electrode production and orders have rebounded, the overall operating rate is still at a low level and prices are weak. In terms of demand, with the year-end rush of downstream customers and the early stocking of overseas customers, the market demand is relatively strong. At the same time, many enterprises are stocking up in advance for next year's Spring Festival, and the production and sales of negative electrode materials are at a high level. Currently, the overall price of negative electrodes is relatively low, and companies have a strong desire to raise prices. However, downstream customers have reduced their pressure to ensure supply, resulting in a stalemate in negative electrode prices. It is expected that the negative electrode prices will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the future.
the diaphragm
This week, the price of lithium battery separators has been running weakly and steadily. In terms of supply and demand, as downstream domestic customers carry out year-end rush, overseas customers consider potential unfavorable factors such as tariff penalties and restriction policies and prepare in advance. The overall market heat is high, driving the continuous increase in production and sales of lithium battery separator materials, and the enterprise operating rate is at a relatively high level throughout the year. In terms of price, downstream customers currently have a higher demand, so they tend to reduce their pressure on prices and focus on ensuring supply. In addition, diaphragm materials have experienced a price war in the early stages and are now at a relatively low level. Diaphragm companies have a strong desire to raise prices, so the current diaphragm material prices are relatively stable. At the same time, the diaphragm industry still has a certain surplus production capacity, so the current market is still in a situation of oversupply, and the improvement in demand is difficult to drive diaphragm prices up. And with the subsequent high demand, it is expected that the price of diaphragm materials will continue to maintain a stable trend.
electrolyte
Electrolyte prices have slightly increased this week. On the supply side, due to the rising price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte manufacturers mainly purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate on demand. On the demand side, the demand for electrolyte from battery cell factories has increased. On the cost side, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased, while the prices of solvents and additives have temporarily stabilized. At present, the overall price of electrolyte is mainly affected by the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, but due to the pressure of battery cells on the price of electrolyte, the price of electrolyte has slightly increased. It is expected that in the short term, electrolyte prices will fluctuate within a range due to the impact of cost factors.
Sodium electricity
The prices of sodium based materials and battery cells continue to decline, and companies have made significant progress in pursuing low-cost, high-performance products. Sodium electricity companies attract financing by increasing orders. It is expected that the overall market activity will continue to increase, while prices will continue to decline.
recovery
The overall price of lithium battery recycling waste remained stable this week. From the perspective of market prices, the downstream key materials cobalt nickel cobalt prices have slightly decreased this week, while lithium prices have slightly increased. In terms of ternary batteries, due to a slight increase in lithium prices and a decrease in nickel cobalt prices, the overall price of ternary battery waste remains stable, and the overall coefficient of ternary batteries remains stable. For lithium iron phosphate battery waste, the overall price of lithium carbonate has remained stable recently, and the price of lithium dots has also remained stable. From the demand side, due to the recent good overall downstream demand and bearish outlook on the future market, battery and powder factories are not willing to lower prices in the near future. Although relatively stable upstream and downstream prices have not had a significant impact on profits, they are generally conducive to wet process manufacturers' production planning compared to the previous period of rapid upstream and downstream price changes. From the perspective of transactions, wet smelting manufacturers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and due to the early start of this year's New Year, most of the purchases are driven by urgent needs, and there have been no excessive stocking situations.

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