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Recently, the import and export data of cobalt and lithium products related to the lithium battery industry chain in August 2024 have been released in a concentrated manner. The data shows that in August, both the imports of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate in China decreased to varying degrees on a month-on-month basis. Regarding lithium concentrate, considering the recent fluctuations in the price of lithium salts and the continuous demand for raw materials on the demand side, it is expected that the import volume of lithium concentrate in China will remain at a high level in the future... SMM has integrated the import and export situations of battery materials as follows:

Upstream

Lithium Concentrate

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in August 2024, the domestic import volume of lithium concentrate was approximately 490,389 metric tons in physical quantity, equivalent to about 46,363 tons in LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent). The physical quantity decreased by 10.8% on a month-on-month basis.

Among them, approximately 282,856 metric tons of lithium concentrate were imported from Australia, accounting for 57.58% of the total domestic imports of lithium concentrate; approximately 138,212 metric tons were imported from Zimbabwe, accounting for 28.18% of the total; approximately 34,177 metric tons were imported from Nigeria, accounting for 7.0% of the total; approximately 31,039 metric tons were imported from Brazil, accounting for 6.3% of the total; approximately 3627 metric tons were imported from Canada, accounting for 0.74% of the total; and approximately 477 metric tons were imported from Rwanda, accounting for about 0.1% of the total.

On a month-on-month basis, the decrease in the imports of lithium concentrate in China in August mainly came from Canada and Australia, with the import volumes decreasing by 80% and 25% respectively. In addition, the import volumes of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe and Brazil increased significantly on a month-on-month basis, increasing by 43.8% and 93% respectively. Considering the recent fluctuations in the price of lithium salts and the continuous demand for raw materials on the demand side, it is expected that the import volume of lithium concentrate in China will remain at a high level in the future.

Returning to the current lithium ore market, regarding spodumene, according to the research of SMM, affected by the fluctuations in the price of lithium carbonate, the quotations of overseas spodumene concentrate have risen to a certain extent, and the sentiment of maintaining prices on the supply side is high. Under the situation that the price of lithium salts has increased recently, the sentiment of receiving goods on the demand side has improved to some extent. However, due to the high price of lithium ores and the bearish mentality of lithium salt factories towards the future price of lithium salts, although the transaction situation has improved, the overall performance is still average. The domestic lithium ore spot market is directly and rapidly affected by the price of lithium salts. Although the quotations on the supply side fluctuate obviously with the influence of the price of lithium salts, the final delivered transaction price of 5% and above concentrate falls within the range of 950 - 1000 yuan/tonnage, with little overall change.

As of September 27th, the spot average price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was reported at $769/ton, increasing by $21/ton compared to $748/ton at the beginning of September, with a growth rate of 2.81%.

On the lepidolite side, recently, the willingness to ship goods on the supply side of lepidolite has increased due to the slight increase in the price of lithium salts and the cost of inventory. The quotations of 2.5% lepidolite concentrate are concentrated around 1,600 yuan/ton. On the demand side, smelting factories with external procurement needs have a continuous demand to receive goods and increase inventory, so the activities of inquiring about and quoting prices on the lepidolite side have been relatively active recently. And due to the influence of the price of lithium salts, the transaction price has shown an upward trend compared to the previous period. In addition, a large lepidolite supplier recently had a bidding activity. Judging from the changes in the setting of the reserve price, it is expected that the price of lepidolite will show a certain upward trend recently.

Lithium Carbonate

According to the customs data: in August 2024, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 17,685 tons, decreasing by 27% on a month-on-month basis, and the average import price was approximately $10,781/ton.

Among them, approximately 12,920 tons of lithium carbonate were imported from Chile, decreasing by 33% on a month-on-month basis, accounting for about 73% of the total import volume this time; approximately 4516 tons were imported from Argentina, decreasing by 4% on a month-on-month basis, accounting for about 26% of the total import volume this time. Chile and Argentina remain the main source countries for China's imports of lithium carbonate, maintaining a relatively strong position. From the perspective of the proportion of import volume, Argentina's share has expanded from 20% in July to 26%. It is expected that under the background of Argentina's expansion of production capacity in the future, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Argentina to China will gradually increase, and it may seize a part of Chile's export market.

As of September 27th, the spot quotations of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 74,600 - 76,400 yuan/ton, with the average price reported at 75,550 yuan/吨, increasing by 900 yuan/ton compared to the price of 74,650 yuan/ton at the beginning of September, with a growth rate of 1.21%.

According to the research of SMM, currently, it is in the inventory stocking cycle of downstream material factories before the National Day. The demands for inquiring about prices and purchasing are both relatively optimistic. Coupled with the fact that some downstream material factories have been affected by the reduction in the volume of customer-supplied materials to varying degrees, the overall purchasing demand sentiment of the downstream has been significantly improved. Driven by favorable market sentiment, lithium salt factories have generally raised their quotations, so the transaction price in the lithium carbonate spot market has increased significantly, with an increase of about 1,000 yuan/ton. Considering that the inventory stocking before the National Day is nearing the end, but there are still some material factories that have a partial shortage of raw materials due to the reduction in customer-supplied materials, it is expected that the purchasing sentiment will not decline significantly. Under the current situation of reduced supply and relatively optimistic demand, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise. However, considering that the inventory level of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, the expected increase in price is limited, and it will show fluctuations within a certain range.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to the customs data, in August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide in China reached 10,421.26 tons, increasing by 15% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 7.4% on a year-on-year basis. Among them, the export volumes to South Korea and Japan reached 7,153 tons and 2,984 tons respectively, accounting for 69% and 29% of the total export volume of China in that month, increasing by 42.8% and decreasing by 14.6% on a month-on-month basis respectively, and decreasing by 11% and increasing by 3.5% on a year-on-year basis respectively. The average price of the export volume of lithium hydroxide in China in that month was $14,839.02/ton, decreasing by 8.71% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 31% on a year-on-year basis.

Battery Materials

Lithium Iron Phosphate

According to the latest data of the General Administration of Customs, in August 2024, the export volume of lithium iron phosphate in China was 262 tons, increasing by 60% on a month-on-month basis and increasing by 194% on a year-on-year basis.

The average export price of lithium iron phosphate in August 2024 was $6,967/ton, decreasing by 31% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 65% on a year-on-year basis.

SMM found that the export data of lithium iron phosphate shows monthly fluctuations. There was a relatively obvious growth in August compared to July, and for the first time since 2017, the export volume exceeded 200 tons. The export of lithium iron phosphate has expanded to multiple regions such as Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. The construction of overseas lithium iron phosphate battery cell enterprises is still in the initial stage. In addition, more and more overseas customers have shown strong interest in lithium iron phosphate materials and their battery cell technologies. With the continuous improvement of the acceptance of lithium iron phosphate by the overseas market and the continuous improvement of the production process, as well as the increasingly serious problem of high tariffs on the export of Chinese new energy vehicles, localized production may be another way for Chinese enterprises to go overseas, which is also a great advantage for the overseas localized production of lithium iron phosphate.

Ternary Cathode

In August 2024, the import volume of Chinese ternary materials (the combined value of NCM + NCA) was 5401 tons, increasing by 22% on a month-on-month basis and increasing by 1% on a year-on-year basis. Among them, 4933 tons of NCM were imported, increasing by 28% on a month-on-month basis and increasing by 29% on a year-on-year basis; 468 tons of NCA were imported, decreasing by 21% on a month-on-going basis and decreasing by 69% on a year-on-year basis.

In August 2024, the export volume of Chinese ternary materials (the combined value of NCM + NCA) was 7931 tons, increasing by 4% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 3% on a year-on-going basis. Among them, the cumulative export volume of NCM was 7378 tons, increasing by 0.5% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 5% on a year-on-going basis; 552 tons of NCA were exported, increasing by 118% on a month-on-going basis and increasing by 51% on a year-on-going basis.

SMM Analysis: The export of ternary materials in August increased slightly on a month-on-month basis. The total export volume of NCM was basically the same as that in July. The more obvious changes were in the export volumes of NCM to Poland and South Korea. Among them, the export volume to Poland decreased significantly this month to only 1,442 tons, decreasing by about 1,500 tons on a month-on-month basis; but the export volume of NCM to South Korea increased significantly, reaching 3,193 tons in August, increasing by about 1,000 tons on a month-on-month basis. The increase in the export volume of NCA was obvious, mainly due to the newly added export of 336 tons of NCA to Japan.

Ternary Precursors

In August 2024, the export volume of Chinese ternary precursors was 13,186 tons, with an increase of 4% on a month-on-month basis and a decrease of 40% on a year-on-year basis.

The cumulative export volume of Chinese ternary precursors from January to August 2024 (including NCM, NCA, nickel oxides, and NC) was 135,316 tons, with a cumulative decrease of 20% on a year-on-year basis.

In August, the overall export volume of ternary precursors was slightly increased compared to July. Among them, the increment of NCM was obvious, while the decrements of nickel oxides, NC, and NCA were obvious. The total export volume of NCM in August was 11,108 tons, increasing by 27% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 36% on a year-on-going basis; the total export volume of nickel oxides and NC in August was 2058 tons, decreasing by 48% on a month-on-month basis and decreasing by 56% on a year-on-going basis. In addition, the export volume of NCA in August was 20 tons.

Lithium Hexafluorophosphate

According to the data of the Chinese customs, in August 2024, the cumulative export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China was 1,516.29 tons, increasing by about 55.2% on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the cumulative import volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China was 6 tons.

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