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Since the third quarter, the domestic car market has seen a rise in consumer sentiment, and the new energy car market has warmed up, which has also driven the market demand for lithium battery power to rise significantly.

According to the data of China Automobile Power Lithium Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in November 2020, the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries in all material types has reached 44.4%; 1 - In November, the loading amount of lithium iron phosphate battery has reached 34.5% in all material types.

It seems that lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery will soon become the market leader with ternary lithium battery (NCM/NCA). Is the model of lithium iron phosphate worth buying? Can the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries remain strong for a long time, benefiting the relevant industrial chain?

(1) The amount of lithium iron phosphate battery loaded has soared

According to the data of China Automobile Power Lithium Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in November 2020, China's power lithium battery load was 10.6 GWh, up 68.8% year on year and 80.9% month on month. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 5.9GWh, up 56.1% year on year and 71.6% month on month; The lithium iron phosphate battery was installed for 4.7GWh, up 91.4% year on year and 95.5% month on month.

From January to November, the total load of power lithium batteries in China was 50.7 GWh, down 3.5% year on year. Among them, the total installed volume of ternary battery is 32.9GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed volume, with a cumulative decrease of 8.0% year on year; The total installed volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 17.5 GWh, accounting for 34.5% of the total installed volume, up 13.0% year on year, surpassing the level of the same period last year.

(2) Is the sound of lithium iron phosphate battery not as loud as that of ternary lithium battery?

Even though the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery is rising rapidly, the voice that lithium iron phosphate battery is not as good as ternary lithium battery is still heard.

In fact, each battery has its own advantages. The advantages of ternary lithium battery are high energy density (corresponding long endurance) and low temperature resistance, while lithium iron phosphate battery is superior in three aspects: high safety, long cycle life and low manufacturing cost. See the table below for details:

In recent years, the choice of automobile enterprises has changed rapidly from lithium iron phosphate battery to ternary lithium battery, and gradually considered the process of choosing lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery step by step, which witnessed the evolution of China's new energy market. The logic behind this is undoubtedly that the buttocks decide the head and seek profits.

The first stage: the pre subsidy era of brutal food grabbing

Early electric passenger cars used lithium iron superphosphate batteries, such as Roewe e550, BYD Qin, etc. Driven by the industrial subsidy policy, the pure electric range and battery energy density have become the core elements in the competition for subsidies. How to maximize the selection of large capacity, high energy density electric core; How to maximize the use of limited battery layout space; How to minimize the weight of the battery has become a technology hotspot. The ternary lithium battery with higher capacity and higher energy density was the best choice at that time. Invisibly, it gives people a very strong feeling that the ternary lithium battery is the future of electric vehicles.

However, when the technical conditions are not mature enough, the chaos in the industry, such as sacrificing safety for higher energy density, is gradually exposed with various fire and recall cases.

Phase II: In the post subsidy era, the vehicle positioning tends to be rational

With the decline of the subsidy policy, the policy dividend gradually weakened, narrowing the gap between the subsidies for lithium iron phosphate battery models and ternary lithium battery models. With the development of product quality, development related experience, supply chain system establishment, consumer cognition, industry cultivation, etc., the industry soil is gradually mature. The lithium iron phosphate battery with higher safety, higher economy, and better cycle life supports the rational positioning of more models and gradually becomes the mainstream trend.

At the same time, as more and more vehicle enterprises enter the bureau to invest in new energy vehicle platforms, they are developing the most reasonable vehicle battery layout space, as well as such means as the introduction of BYD blade batteries, the CATLCTP concept to improve the battery volume utilization, etc., which reduces the disadvantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries in energy density and endurance mileage.

(3) What popular models are boosting lithium iron phosphate batteries?

According to the data of the Passenger Transport Association, among the top 10 new energy vehicle sales in November, Hongguang MINI, TSLAModel 3, Oula Black Cat (R1) and BYD Han EV, the top four hot selling models, are all equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the total sales of the four vehicles account for more than 73% of the top ten, which has become the mainstream.

In the second half of the year, Hongguang MINIEV and Oula Black Cat (R1) are the most popular heroes. Hongguang MINIEV with a guide price of RMB 288-38800 can achieve a 120km or 170km endurance, while Oula Black Cat (R1) with a guide price of RMB 698-8480 can provide three endurance options: 301km, 351km and 405km. Low cost functional pure electric vehicles equipped with low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries quickly meet the objective needs of the masses of people for a car, becoming the best model in 2020.

TSLA's domestic Model3 standard endurance version, after being equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery, has reduced its selling price to less than 250000 yuan after subsidies, becoming a sharp tool for TSLA to increase its sales. Imagine that if other models of TSLA also launch lithium iron phosphate battery versions, it will certainly be the price butcher in the high price, high quality and high performance pure electric vehicle market.

BYD HanEV, equipped with blade batteries (lithium iron phosphate) and accelerating for 3.9 seconds per 100 km, is undoubtedly the pioneer of battery technology in 2020. BYD is now the world's largest manufacturer of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Since then, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased, and when prices have risen simultaneously, BYD may benefit first by virtue of its scale advantage.

Since the third quarter, relevant battery manufacturers have been in full production. German nano, Beiteri, Hunan Yuneng, Hubei Wanrun and other iron lithium anode head companies, as well as battery manufacturers such as BYD and Guoxuan Gaoke, have been fully produced.

However, it has to be said that the pure electric models that are popular in the second half of this year are now collectively coping with the winter challenges. Whether the cute, cute and cost-effective joy in summer and autumn can cover the endurance anxiety caused by the obvious decline of lithium iron phosphate battery in winter needs to wait for consumers' public praise.

(4) Kung Fu shooting

At present, the development of the new energy vehicle market has entered the third stage, and the consumer demand is relatively clear: safety, endurance, durability, and endurance is no longer the primary anxiety.

Industry production and marketing, product positioning of automobile enterprises, and consumer choice are gradually becoming mature and rational. More and more consumers will be able to distinguish the advantages and disadvantages of lithium iron phosphate battery models and ternary lithium battery models, and choose models that are more suitable for their own vehicle environment and performance expectations.

As Hongguang MINIEV, Oula Black Cat and other popular models continued to increase in volume, the loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries doubled year on year. When do you think the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery will increase to 40% to 50%?

Kongfu Automobile believes that the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery may form a stable dichotomy with ternary lithium battery by Q3 of 2021 at the latest. Relevant industry stocks and concept stocks deserve attention.

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