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More than two months ago this year, that is, from June 12, the new policy of subsidies for new energy vehicles was officially implemented, and the 300 km driving range became the watershed for the increase and decrease of subsidies. What changes are taking place in the price, sales volume and market of new energy vehicles two months after the implementation of the new policy? Look at the reporter's investigation in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai.

The sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled by 100000 yuan year on year, and the models became the main force

At the Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Trading Market, new energy car dealers told reporters that their business in the first half of this year was particularly good. The data of China Automobile Association also shows that in the first five months of this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide was 328000, an increase of 141.6% over the same period last year. In June and July, with the implementation of the new policy, the sales volume dropped slightly and picked up again in August. In terms of price, after the implementation of the New Deal, car prices did not rise, but consumers began to choose higher priced cars.

Liu Hailong, a new energy vehicle salesman at the Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Trading Market, said that cars with a price of more than 100000 yuan and a driving range of more than 300 kilometers sell much better.

Beijing consumers: The psychological expectation is that the price is about 134000 yuan.

Beijing consumer: It's a car worth more than 100000 yuan.

At a BYD 4S store in Shenzhen, Guangdong, near the end of the day, there were still many customers coming to the store to buy cars. After experiencing several new energy vehicles, Mr. Chen began to ask the sales manager of the store for prices.

Shenzhen consumer Mr. Chen: The pure electric Song EV I saw just now?

Chen Fushong, Sales Manager of 3D Turin Automobile Sales Service Shop of BYD Automobile in Shenzhen: the price of the bare car is 1999000 yuan. Because the price we get is the price after the subsidy, the approximate subsidy for this car is estimated to be more than 90000 yuan.

According to the new subsidy policy implemented in June this year, 300 km of driving range has become a watershed. Subsidies for vehicles with a driving range of more than 300 km will be increased, while subsidies for vehicles with a driving range of less than 300 km will be substantially reduced, while subsidies for vehicles with a driving range of less than 150 km will be completely eliminated. The policy has released a clear signal that the subsidy will incline to high-quality and high mileage models. Soon, the policy effect will appear in the consumer market. As of June this year, the sales volume of A00 class cars that had been mainstream in the market and had a range of 300 km or less had dropped by 62% month on month due to a sharp drop in subsidies; The sales volume of A0 class and above models with a range of more than 300 km increased by 20% month on month. During the interview, the reporter found that although the subsidy policy is still an important factor for consumers to buy new energy vehicles at this stage, compared with the low price strategy in previous years, the consumer demand has been upgraded and more mature and rational. Mr. Chen of Shenzhen has repeatedly compared a hybrid electric vehicle with an electric vehicle, although he can get more than 90000 subsidies for the middle and high-end models.

Mr. Chen, a consumer in Shenzhen: It mainly depends on the quality of new energy vehicles, including their performance, interior upholstery and appearance. I think this is a decisive factor for consumers to buy new energy vehicles. Government subsidies will become an incentive.

In a car sales 4S store in Shanghai, the reporter conducted a questionnaire survey. In 20 questionnaires sent out, more than half of the consumers said that the primary factor for them to choose new energy vehicles was the new energy license, and nearly 80% of the consumers believed that the current price of new energy vehicles was still on the high side.

Shanghai consumer: It's OK to give away cards, but not if you don't.

Shanghai consumer: The price should be lower. More performance.

Subsidy for declining car price but not rising; the car company makes up the difference to protect the market

From January to July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 504000 and 496000, respectively, an increase of 85% and 97.1% over the same period last year, and the sales volume nearly doubled. The consumer market can be said to be prosperous, but the profits and profits of new energy vehicle manufacturers have not been able to rise. What is the reason? Continue to see the reporter's investigation.

In the new energy vehicle market in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the reporter found that since the first half of this year, there have been changes and changes in the market. First of all, the biggest change is the rapid adjustment of the product structure.

Chen Fushong, Sales Manager of 3D Turin Automobile Sales Service Shop of BYD Automobile in Shenzhen, said that in 2018, all of our products are new models, all of which are versions above 300 kilometers, and those below 300 kilometers are gone.

Yin Weifeng, a new energy vehicle salesman at the Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Trading Market: Take this car as an example. The maximum mileage of this car was 220 kilometers the year before last or even last year. Now it has been upgraded to 330 kilometers. The price has not changed.

The biggest change is that the price has not risen. Although the amount of subsidy has been greatly reduced, domestic auto enterprises have chosen to digest it by themselves to maintain the market.

Yuan Chengyin, deputy general manager of BAIC BJEV: It is impossible for me to adjust my sales price in a large amount because of the change of subsidies. Then I must solve the cost impact of the decline of subsidies on me.

Li Yunfei, Deputy General Manager of BYD Automobile Sales Co., Ltd.: I have one product for all my products, and I will use my profits to subsidize the difference. However, this 70% discount is also a big encroachment on the profits of the enterprise, including this (profit), compared with before.

Among the listed companies that have released their performance forecasts, BYD, Haima Automobile, Zhongtong Bus, Ankai Bus, etc. have all experienced a year-on-year decline in their profit performance. Among them, BYD, which continued to maintain the global champion in the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the first half of the year, recorded a year-on-year decline of 70.98% - 82.59% in the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company from January to June. In this regard, BYD said that the decline in performance was mainly due to the reduction of subsidies during the policy transition period, The performance will improve in the second half of the year.

Li Yunfei, Deputy General Manager of BYD Automobile Sales Co., Ltd.: Before the transition period, the subsidy was 100%. After the transition period, the subsidy equivalent to our models was higher. Of course, in this relatively long transition period, it is 30% off the previous standard. Several of our products can meet the higher and better standards of the country, so after the fourth quarter of the third quarter, our performance will be greatly promoted.

Many auto companies in the interview said that the most urgent thing is to adjust and upgrade the products and production lines. Medium and high-end models with a range of more than 300 kilometers will become the focus of efforts. However, experts in the industry believe that the real challenge faced by domestic automobile enterprises is that after the subsidy is completely withdrawn in 2020, the cost and cost performance of new energy vehicles will be compared with traditional fuel vehicles, and there is still a long way to go for new energy vehicle enterprises to improve quality and reduce cost.

Dong Yang, Vice President of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: The problem of high cost of electric vehicles will exist for a long time. In the first stage, the problem is mainly solved by subsidies. In the second stage, the problem is solved by the double point policy. In fact, the enterprises themselves subsidize. I personally expect that the overall performance price ratio of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles will be balanced around 2025.

High end shortage Low end surplus power battery structural surplus highlights

The constant adjustment of subsidy policies has also had a significant impact on power battery enterprises. As an upstream industry of new energy vehicles, power battery directly determines the range of new energy vehicles, and often the range determines the price and profit of the whole vehicle. The industry believes that there is overcapacity in power batteries in China, and the capacity utilization rate is only 40%. Is this really the case?

In the Yinlong new energy power battery production workshop in Handan, Hebei, part of the machinery and equipment were wrapped up. The person in charge of the enterprise told the reporter that the capacity utilization rate of these production lines was very low, and they could hardly receive orders. Now they are ready to be eliminated.

Shen Jianyang, General Manager of Yinlong New Energy Handan Industrial Park: The utilization rate and operating rate of the old lines are basically low, about 20% to 30%.

During the interview, the reporter learned that in the first half of this year, some domestic power battery enterprises began structural adjustment. At the end of June, Shenzhen Watma Battery Co., Ltd., which once ranked the top three in the industry, issued a notice saying that due to insufficient orders, financial difficulties and other reasons, it had a half year holiday. However, in the interview, the reporter found that the production lines of some enterprises did not reduce production, but appeared in short supply.

Zhou Jiang, President of the Research Institute of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd.: The round (battery) used in passenger cars needs 4000 to 4500 vehicles a month, and our current (output) is only about half.

Xu Xingwu, Senior Vice President of Hefei Guoxuan High tech Power Energy Co., Ltd.: Our current lines, Hefei, Nanjing, Tangshan, Qingdao, Kunshan and Lujiang, are full of production tasks.

Long Huajin, Chairman of Jiangsu Tafel New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: My current order has exceeded 2-3 times, so I want to find another production line now

Overcapacity and shortage not only occur among different enterprises, but also in different production lines of the same enterprise. The industry research organization "China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association" believes that the current power battery overcapacity is at least double. Some experts believe that compared with overcapacity, the core contradiction faced by domestic power batteries is structural problems. The rapid iteration of power battery technology in recent two years has turned many existing capacity into backward capacity.

Xu Yanhua, secretary-general of China Automobile Power Battery Innovation Promotion Alliance: At that time, we started with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Since the year before last, the demand for ternary lithium batteries has increased. At that time, the battery energy density was about 100GWh (Gwatt hour). Now, ternary lithium batteries have reached more than 200GWh (Gwatt hour) (per kilogram), and will reach 260GWh (Gwatt hour) next year. Therefore, the existing capacity, the transformation that can be transformed, and the elimination of those that cannot be transformed.

It is understood that at present, the two main types of batteries for new energy vehicles in China are lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries. Last year, the market share of the two batteries was 93% in total, and the sales volume was no different. However, because ternary lithium batteries have more advantages in energy density, they almost monopolize the market demand for electric passenger vehicles with a range of more than 300 kilometers, and the use is soaring rapidly.

The cost pressure of upstream and downstream power battery enterprises is high

For power battery enterprises, in addition to continuously producing batteries with higher energy density, cost pressure has become an important challenge they face. At present, 14 power battery enterprises have issued performance forecasts, of which 5 enterprises are expected to increase, 2 enterprises are equal, and 7 enterprises are expected to decrease. Enterprises generally reported in the interview that they are facing unprecedented cost pressure due to the double squeeze from upstream and downstream.

In the production workshop of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd., several production lines are operating at full capacity. Wang Nianzu, vice president of the company, told reporters that although their battery sales are good, they still have difficulty coping with the cost pressure from upstream and downstream.

Wang Nianju, Executive Vice President of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd.: Especially since the end of 2016, it should be said that the cathode materials have nearly doubled in the first half of this year. With the decrease of subsidies, the end customer (automobile enterprise) basically transfers their pressure to our downstream. The price of the battery has dropped by 50% or 60%.

According to the analysis and prediction of Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, by 2025, the global sales of high-end electric vehicles will increase 17 times, breaking through 20 million, and correspondingly, the demand for ternary lithium batteries and cobalt as its main raw material may increase 26 times.

Dong Yang, Executive Vice President of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: This is not just a problem for our country. Our country has lithium and graphite in its own hands, but cobalt is in short supply all over the world.

In order to control the cost of raw materials, Ningde Times, BYD and other domestic battery enterprises have started to invest in raw material resources.

Li Yunfei, Deputy General Manager of BYD Automobile Sales Co., Ltd.: With a listed company in Tibet, we also have some cooperation on a lithium resource of upstream raw materials.

Long Huajin, Chairman of Jiangsu Tafel New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: To reduce costs is to make some adjustments through some large-scale cooperation with raw material factories, including in-depth binding with some enterprises more upstream.

Under the general trend of declining subsidies, BYD, which is self-sufficient in batteries, has decided to open its battery business to ease the cost pressure.

Li Yunfei, Deputy General Manager of BYD Automobile Sales Co., Ltd.: Sharing it can provide more cooperation for the industry. Many enterprises can buy my batteries. After you finally come up with the scale, I think that some of the bad impacts brought by the decline of subsidies will be digested by your scale effect.

Under the background that the subsidy policy tends to support high energy density, many people in the industry worry that too much emphasis on a single energy density indicator may not give consideration to battery life and safety.

Zhang Hongli, Vice President of the Engineering Research Institute of Hefei Guoxuan High tech Power Energy Co., Ltd.: From the technical point of view, if you one-sided pursue energy density, you will do a lot of such extreme design in the battery design, which will bring great challenges to the control of foreign matters and internal short circuit in the battery manufacturing process, thus causing great hidden dangers to safety.

Some enterprises also believe that the pace of policy adjustment in recent two years is too fast, resulting in insufficient time period for reliability and stability testing of the vehicle and battery.

Jiang Bin, Director of the Project Engineering Department of Jiangsu Tafel New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Under normal circumstances, it takes 36 to 48 months to build a product in the automotive industry chain. However, the current subsidy policy is adjusted once a year, which also leads to many products being directly introduced to the market before they are mature enough.

In addition, experts in the industry also said that the market did not pay enough attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher safety and fast charging technology.

Dong Yang, Executive Vice President of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: For example, when the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery is relatively high, it has a relatively safe point. Is it a better product on buses? There is also fast charging. For example, some fast charging batteries are not given enough attention in current policies.

On June 8 this year, three mandatory national standards, namely, Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicles, Safety Requirements for Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles and Safety Requirements for Electric Buses, passed the technical review. At present, they have entered the approval stage and will be released as soon as possible.

Qu Guochun, Deputy Director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In the past, some standards may not be complete from our safety testing, especially for the new system batteries. We need to keep up with some relevant testing standards. We are also stepping up our efforts in this area. In order to include some new safety standards for our buses, they are gradually being introduced. On the whole, we promote industrial progress through product standards.

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