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The main driving force of China's new energy vehicle market has shifted from the past commercial vehicle market such as passenger cars and logistics vehicles to the passenger vehicle market. In the past month, this trend has become more obvious. In the future, the pure electric passenger vehicle market will become the largest engine driving the demand for power batteries.

According to the data of OFweek Industry Research Institute, in August 2018, the installed capacity of power battery in China reached 4.17Gwh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, a quarter on quarter increase of 25%, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that in July. This is mainly because the impact of declining subsidies was gradually reduced, and the output of vehicle enterprises began to rise, driving the growth of installed capacity of power battery.

From January to August 2018, the total installed capacity of power battery reached 23.01Gwh, with a year-on-year growth of 104.35%, which has exceeded the total cumulative installed capacity in the first ten months of last year. It is estimated that the annual cumulative installed capacity will reach 55Gwh.

From the perspective of model installed capacity, the installed capacity of power battery of China's pure electric passenger vehicles shrank in May due to the impact of the subsidy recession. However, due to the pull in the private consumption field and time-sharing leasing field, the market began to recover after entering July, and the market size is growing rapidly.

By August, the installed capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles had reached 2.64Gwh, accounting for 63.39% of the total installed capacity of new energy vehicles, which has exceeded the installed capacity in April. The field of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles is dominated by high-end vehicles of Class A and above, most of which are BYD, Roewe and joint ventures. The installed capacity is 0.33gwh, accounting for 7.8%. In the field of pure electric passenger cars, due to the release of a large amount of capacity in April and May, after the decline of subsidies, the market installed capacity remained at a low level with limited growth. In August, the installed capacity was only 0.82Gwh, accounting for 19.65%.

The field of plug-in hybrid electric bus is dominated by lithium manganate batteries, with a small installed capacity of only 0.02Gwh, accounting for 0.49%. The total installed capacity of the pure electric special vehicle industry shrank during the transition period due to the lower subsidy in the transition period than that after the recession. Although the market has started to recover since June, the growth in August was slow, with an installed capacity of 0.36Gwh. Compared with the same period in 2017, the installed capacity only increased by 8.4%, accounting for 8.67%.

Editor's comments: In August 2018, the cumulative sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles was 40723, with a year-on-year growth of 28%. In the first eight months, the cumulative sales volume was 272544, with a year-on-year growth of 108%. Pure electric passenger vehicles have become the absolute main force driving the demand for power batteries. The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2019 is expected to further decline, so there is still the possibility of centralized licensing in the fourth quarter. With the gradual improvement of charging facilities and the gradual acceptance of pure electric vehicles by end consumers, the installed capacity of power batteries in the fourth quarter will increase significantly.

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