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The new underwriting agreement locks in the output of the MtMarion project, increasing the self-sufficiency rate to 100%. According to our analysis, after signing the new underwriting agreement, Ganfeng Lithium Industry will be able to obtain a total of approximately 350000 tons of spodumene concentrate, which is equivalent to the demand for approximately 50000 tons of lithium carbonate spodumene. We expect that Ganfeng Lithium Industry will completely reverse the situation of limited raw materials, and with the addition of production and supply, the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials will increase to 100%. Before the expansion of the company's lithium hydroxide project was completed, the company even had surplus spodumene for external sales. In addition, the company can not only obtain stable raw materials, but also receive discounts on prices. At the same time, it can also receive dividends from RIM to further reduce the company's actual production costs.
Expanding the production of 20000 tons of lithium hydroxide is the right time to reshape the lithium industry landscape. In our view, Ganfeng Lithium Industry will increase its entire lithium salt product scale from about 30000 tons (converted into LCE) to about 50000 tons (converted into LCE) through this expansion. This means that in the future, the production of both domestic lithium salt giants will expand to the first line of 50000 tons, and the global lithium industry pattern will be reshaped, with industry rankings significantly reshuffled. Of course, we also noticed that TSLA was seeking lithium salt suppliers for its super lithium battery factory before this, and the NCA battery route chosen by TSLA uses lithium hydroxide as raw material, which means that Ganfeng Lithium will also prepare for this. In our view, product quality meets standards, can form a long-term and stable supply, and reliable lithium salt suppliers are the choice of branded lithium battery manufacturers.
Add 200 million ampere hours of polymer lithium batteries and deeply layout downstream industries. The company plans to invest in the construction of a fully automatic polymer lithium battery production line project with a daily output of 240000 units (600000 AH). We believe that this is the company's deep layout in the lithium battery industry after investing in a non-public offering project with an annual output of 125 million units of 18650 high capacity lithium-ion power lithium batteries and acquiring Meibai Electronics.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. We expect the company's earnings per share from 2016 to 2018 to be 0.88 yuan, 1.28 yuan, and 1.58 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 43 times, 29 times, and 24 times PE, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk reminder: There are risks such as new energy vehicle volume not meeting expectations, lithium salt product price fluctuations exceeding expectations, MtMarion project not meeting expectations, etc.
Tuoban Co., Ltd.: The company's performance has grown healthily and is optimistic about the rapid expansion of various businesses in the future
Event: The company released its 2016 midterm report. In the first half of 2016, the company achieved a revenue of 737 million yuan, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 49.6715 million yuan, an increase of 33.2% year-on-year.
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