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The company is accelerating production expansion, and the structural surplus of power lithium batteries is becoming apparent

Due to the shortage of battery production in 2015, most companies have increased their production layout. Liu Yanlong pointed out that at the beginning of 2016, it is expected that the production of power lithium batteries will reach 60 billion watt hours. However, according to the latest statistics, as of the end of 2016, the production of 50 power lithium battery companies in China has exceeded 100 billion watt hours. In addition, due to the delayed release of subsidy policies and the implementation of the "Catalogue of Norms and Conditions for the Automotive Power Battery Industry", the sales of new energy vehicles have significantly decreased compared to the expectations at the beginning of the year, and some small and medium-sized companies are in a state of shutdown or semi shutdown. Experts point out that based on the current expansion plan of the power lithium battery company, the total production has exceeded 170 billion watt hours per year, and the production is more than 7 times the demand. If the market sales ratio of electric buses and electric passenger vehicles is 1:10, 170 billion watt hours can approximately meet the total demand for an annual production of 500000 electric buses and 5 million electric passenger vehicles. According to China's new energy vehicle development plan, this may be China's goal after 2025.

Although there are many power lithium battery companies in China and their overall production continues to expand, many newly entered small companies have transitioned from other fields and their technological strength is relatively weak. The power lithium battery industry is facing problems such as a mix of good and bad, uneven product quality, and the gradual concentration of market share to several leading companies has left most small companies in a state of soy sauce production, resulting in a huge waste of social resources. It is understood that in 2015, out of 121 power lithium-ion battery companies in China, no more than 20 truly entered the vehicle supply system. In 2016, there were 30 battery manufacturers with a carrying capacity of over 100MWh, and only 4 battery manufacturers with a carrying capacity of over 1GWh. Among them, BYD alone had a battery shipment volume of 7.4Gwh in 2016, accounting for 26% of the total. Secondly, CATL's shipment volume is also as high as 6.7Gwh, ranking second. The two companies have accumulated up to 14Gwh, accounting for 50% of the total, with a high concentration of production.

At present, the power lithium battery industry has a serious two-level differentiation, and the problem of low-level repetitive construction is prominent. Wu Zhixin, Deputy Director of China's Automotive Technology Research Center, stated that so far, the overall production of lithium battery companies may have exceeded the current demand for new energy, but the truly good battery companies are still in short supply. The so-called overcapacity is a structural surplus. In response to this phenomenon, Fang Jianhua pointed out that with the arrival of structural overcapacity, industry reshuffle is inevitable. The advantages of leading companies with technological advantages and production scale will be further highlighted, while small and medium-sized companies face enormous survival pressure, and companies with poor product quality will gradually be eliminated.

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