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China's production and sales of new energy vehicles have ranked first in the world for three consecutive years. According to the data released by the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of June 2018, the number of new energy vehicles in China had reached 1.99 million.

However, behind the prosperity and development of the industry, the problem of structural capacity has become increasingly prominent. Song Qiuling, Deputy Director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, said publicly that the risk of structural overcapacity of new energy vehicles has increased, low-end overcapacity is insufficient while high-end overcapacity is insufficient, the industry is expanding blindly, and investment is also showing signs of overheating.

Some insiders said that with the influx of capital, the risk of structural overcapacity in the new energy vehicle industry is accumulating, and this risk has begun to be transmitted to the power battery industry. Huang Shilin, vice chairman of Ningde Times, said at a public event that the structural overcapacity of the domestic power battery industry is expected to continue until 2023.

In recent years, the promotion of new energy vehicles in China has achieved remarkable results. In 2009, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were less than 500. By 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles had increased to 794,000 and 777,000 respectively. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first seven months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 504000 and 496000, up 85% and 97.1% respectively from the same period last year. Recently, the Ministry of Finance predicted that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 1.5 million in 2018.

In fact, in April 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the Medium and Long term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry, which proposed that by 2020, the annual production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles would reach 2 million.

According to the data released by China Automobile Circulation Association, from 2015 to the end of June 2017, more than 200 new energy vehicle projects have been launched in China, and the related investment has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. The production capacity plan of new energy vehicles announced by various automobile enterprises has exceeded 20 million, which is 10 times the target planned output in the Medium and Long Term Development Plan of the Automobile Industry.

"The planned production capacity of the enterprise is relatively weak. The last one of the 100,000 planned vehicles may not have landed, and it is unknown how many can be produced in the future." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, said that at present, new energy vehicles are still in the expansion stage of "horse racing enclosure", and there are overdraft risks in land resources and local policies; Even if enterprises have been built, most of their products are aimed at subsidized low-end production capacity.

While the planned capacity of the new energy vehicle industry has soared, the power battery industry, as the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain, has also witnessed a rapid momentum of investment and expansion.

According to Outlook News Weekly, from 2014 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of China's power battery industry was as high as 368%, 324% and 78.6% respectively. In 2016, the investment in the power battery industry exceeded 100 billion yuan. If all the power battery capacity currently formed is released, the annual capacity of 170GWh will be formed, which is more than 7 times the actual market demand. According to relevant planning, the total capacity of power battery in China will reach 285GWh in 2020, but the demand for power battery in the same period is only 97GWh.

"In fact, the problem of power battery capacity emerged in 2017", Yu Xiao, a new energy vehicle analyst of Huachuang Securities, said frankly to Zhongxin Jingwei that if the current total demand and supply were taken into account, the power battery capacity would be excessive.

Coincidentally, Huang Shilin mentioned in his speech a few days ago that the structural overcapacity in the domestic power battery industry is now obvious, and the high-quality capacity of leading enterprises is sought after, leading to insufficient capacity; However, the capacity of small and medium-sized manufacturers and backward manufacturers is difficult to digest, and their living space is being squeezed. "This phenomenon is expected to continue until 2023".

Yu Xiao believes that the market share in the future will focus on leading enterprises, and the second and third tier or non current power battery enterprises will be eliminated. At present, the leading enterprises are still planning their production capacity, while the latter enterprises are not satisfied with their production capacity and will not expand their production.

In order to solve the problem of structural overcapacity in the new energy automobile industry, Song Qiuling said that the Ministry of Finance would adhere to the policy guidance of supporting the superior and strengthening the strong, continue to raise the threshold of subsidies, and support superior products and enterprises.

"As far as new energy passenger cars are concerned, the state is very strict in approving the production qualification of enterprises," Cui Dongshu said, which is intended to promote their high-end development by strictly controlling production capacity; At the same time, the new subsidy policy also blocked low-end production capacity.

According to the analysis by Sino Singapore Jingwei, BAIC New Energy EC Series, which is of A00 class and has a range of 200 kilometers, sold 39906 vehicles in the first half of this year, while only 3 vehicles were sold in the month when the new subsidy policy was implemented (June). "In the future, SUV models with high endurance and energy efficiency, A0 family cars and other higher level models will become the mainstream trend of the market." Cui Dongshu added.

"It is risky to rely on short-term subsidies for development. Enterprises should establish the concept of sustainable development and enhance their competitiveness by improving product technology." Cui Dongshu said that learning more from foreign advanced experience and achieving integrated development would not only benefit the enterprise but also the overall development of the new energy vehicle industry.

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