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The development of new energy vehicles is a systematic project, including the positive research and development of the whole vehicle, the "three electricity" core technology, lightweight, intelligent and many other aspects, but the most basic and important should be the breakthrough in battery technology, which is the key element to solve many problems such as electric vehicle mileage anxiety, high cost, performance improvement and so on. Therefore, the battery industry should be at the forefront of innovation in the entire new energy vehicle industry. In the next five years, that is, around 2023, how much progress can be made in the R&D and implementation of power cell products, as well as in the process research, is worth our careful study.

1、 Innovation of power battery cell technology

Since the promotion and demonstration of new energy vehicles in China, the dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has gradually been formed. From "popular" in 2010 to 2015, ternary lithium has come from behind. In the new energy vehicle market in 2015, the supporting proportion of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries was still "three seven", "four six" in 2016, nearly flat in 2017, and ternary lithium has begun to reverse in the first half of 2018.

The transfer of power battery from lithium iron phosphate to lithium ternary is not easy. As shown in the figure below, before the rapid transformation in China, foreign battery enterprises have made some changes in the cell chemical system. The reason why it gives us the feeling of "suddenly like a spring breeze in one night" is that we have insisted on the route of lithium iron phosphate for a long time. After 2016, they generally turned to the development of ternary lithium battery cells, which immediately followed the technological path of Japan and South Korea.

At present, the domestic ternary material power battery system is lithium nickel cobalt manganate (NCM). Nickel can improve the energy density of materials. According to the proportion of three transition metal ions, it can be divided into low nickel NCM424, NCM333, NCM523 and high nickel NCM622, NCM811 and other materials. Its industrialization process is mainly from low nickel NCM333 and 523 to high nickel 622 and 811.

For the whole vehicle, there are four key problems of power battery that need to be solved:

Battery cell price: As the subsidy for new energy vehicles continues to decline, the battery price needs to continue to decline in the future. In terms of phases, at the beginning of 2021, the price of the cell needs to reach 0.7 yuan/Wh, about 100 dollars/kWh; By 2023, it will be further reduced to 60 cents/Wh, about 80 dollars/kWh.

Core life: The life of the existing NCM523 system is about 8 to 10 years. If it is heavily used, it will consume faster. It is expected to extend the life to 10 years.

Core safety: to improve the safety of the cell, the improvement is to gradually optimize the electrolyte formula, diaphragm and other key factors, which requires a more original safety mechanism.

Cell energy density: The subsidy policy will draw a new baseline for the battery energy density every year. The country has also set the Medium and Long Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry, and the energy density of single battery will be 300Wh/kg by 2020.

We will focus on the impact of specific energy of battery on the development of electric vehicles. At present, the main pure electric vehicle platform planning can be divided into the following levels. The battery load generally starts from 40kWh. It is not enough to increase the battery if you want to obtain a longer range. The battery itself is large in size and weight, and the more it is piled up, the more energy consumption will increase and the endurance will decrease.

At present, the energy density of mainstream battery systems is between 140kWh/kg-160kWh/kg, and the range design has generally reached 350-400km. The plan of domestic high-end electric vehicles is to improve the endurance mileage to 500 km by optimizing the design of the electric cell around 2020. At present, the foreign Volkswagen MEB platform, BMW's iNext series and Mercedes Benz's EQ series all plan different energy densities, which are selected by controlling the total battery load.

From the perspective of the progress of mainstream battery manufacturers, the product iteration speed is also divided into radical route and peaceful route. It is necessary to comprehensively consider the improvement of energy density while meeting the safety, life and other indicators. For the same size of battery, the higher the watt hour, the lower the manufacturing cost per watt hour. According to the requirements of environmental control at the manufacturing level, there is also a process of production line transformation in the short term.

At present, cylindrical power batteries have taken the lead in mass production of high nickel products, and a breakthrough in square and flexible batteries is imminent. It is expected that the industry will usher in a universal breakthrough in mass production of high nickel products in 2019. Before the breakthrough of other types of power technology, the life cycle of high nickel ternary positive electrode products is expected to be at least five years.

2、 How far is solid-state battery application?

From the feedback of mainstream battery suppliers, the technology development at the cell level may be faster in the next five years, but in order to meet the requirements of vehicles, the actual application iteration speed is not as fast as we thought. Therefore, some automobile enterprises are already trying to solve the problem with solid-state batteries in a leapfrog way.

A while ago, Volkswagen announced that it would invest about 100 million dollars in QuantumScape, with the goal of developing and owning solid state batteries that can be mass produced in 2025. Volkswagen began to pay attention to QuantumScape many years ago. In December 2014, it held 5% of the latter's equity, and the current investment of 100 million dollars is a new investment, which also shows that Volkswagen is more certain about the possibility of the latter's technology realization. In Japan, the Japanese government, Japanese battery manufacturers and three major automobile manufacturers, Honda, Nissan and Toyota, will jointly develop solid-state lithium-ion batteries. However, according to the statements of several leaders, the time node will be after 2025.

Takao Asami, senior vice president of Nissan Research and Advanced Engineering, said in an interview that before 2025, solid state battery technology has not been improved to be used in electric vehicles. Obstacles include cost and production difficulty, which are basically still in the initial research stage. Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota's chairman, said: "We are working hard to study. If we want to mass produce, there are still some problems that have not been solved.". This also shows that solid state batteries need to be jointly solved by internal and external innovation companies at the R&D level, and cannot be used in the short term.

Summary:

Calm down, in the past five years, the power battery cell technology has gradually improved every year. However, considering the need to support the rapid popularization of the entire electric vehicle, the innovation speed at the cell level may not be as fast as we expected. To sum up, it is enough to simply achieve the goal of 300Wh/kg in 2020. The question is, will achieving this goal mean that it can be used in electric vehicles?

The answer is uncertain. Automotive power battery is a system engineering, meeting the specific energy requirements is only one of the conditions, and other performance (charge discharge ratio, power, life, safety, etc.) is also crucial. On the basis of achieving the goal of high specific energy, more time and effort are needed to develop and improve other performance indicators comprehensively.

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