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Recently, the price of vinyl carbonate, the raw material of lithium battery electrolyte, continued to rise. After an increase of 2000 yuan/ton last week to 18000 yuan/ton, it was closed again on the 16th of this month due to the shortage of supply. After several weeks of rising prices, the price of this variety has doubled compared to February.

Why the continuous soaring?

According to China Battery Alliance, vinyl carbonate is an organic solvent with excellent performance, which can dissolve many polymers; It is mainly used in chemical fertilizer, fiber, pharmacy, organic synthesis, new energy battery electrolyte and other industries. At present, the largest demand is in lithium battery electrolyte. At present, the supply of vinyl carbonate exceeds the demand, and the current price is far higher than the price of 12000 yuan/ton in the peak season of the fourth quarter of last year.

From the supply side, environmental protection factors led to the contraction of the supply chain and the tight balance between supply and demand in the industry. The global ethylene carbonate production capacity is monopolized in some regions, and the production is mainly concentrated in East Asia, South Korea, China, Japan, etc. The ethylene carbonate is mainly used for local lithium battery electrolyte through the production of DMC, which can be said that it is not sold out. At the end of last year, Jiangsu shut down 35000 tons of vinyl carbonate capacity for environmental reasons, accounting for more than 30% of the industry's capacity; Recently, some production capacity is affected by environmental protection supervision and maintenance, and short-term supply is again limited.

From the perspective of demand, China's electric vehicle industry has shown explosive growth. Lithium battery has a rigid demand for vinyl carbonate. Among the five electrolyte solvents, the substitutability of vinyl carbonate is low. The contraction of supply leads to a tightening in the off-season, and the supply may exceed the demand in the peak season.

In summary, by comparison, the current supply of vinyl carbonate in China is about 69000 tons, the expected demand is 40000 to 60000 tons, and the export is about 10000 to 15000 tons. The supply and demand are in tight balance. Taking into account the electrolyte slack season, the price of vinyl carbonate jumped to 11900 yuan in the slack season of the first quarter, higher than the price of 11800 yuan in the peak season last year. In fact, behind the price jump in the off-season is that the industry has no vinyl carbonate inventory at present, and the price has risen. The battery industry has improved month on month. At the same time, the shortage of vinyl carbonate has become increasingly prominent. The shortage of vinyl carbonate this year has become a highly probable event.

Which companies benefit?

According to the current development status of the mainstream electrolyte industry of lithium batteries, few manufacturers supply vinyl carbonate, mainly including Oak Corporation, Shida Shenghua and other enterprises.

Oak is one of the largest ethylene oxide fine chemical new material enterprises in China so far. Since its establishment, Oak has been focusing on the research, production and sales of ethylene oxide fine chemical new materials. At present, it has developed into a leading enterprise in the field of ethylene oxide fine chemical industry in China. Taking the project of electrolyte solvent (vinyl carbonate) for new energy lithium battery with an annual output of 20000 tons as a major technological innovation, the project has been officially put into commissioning on July 24, 2018, and continues to produce high-quality and qualified vinyl carbonate products.

Shida Shenghua is one of the leading enterprises in the production of dimethyl carbonate, propylene carbonate, ethylene carbonate, methyl ethyl carbonate and other carbonate products. In March this year, Shi Dashenghua announced that he planned to invest 170 million yuan to build a 20000 t/a vinyl carbonate project in Poland. Carbonate business accounts for 39.01% of Shida Shenghua's revenue, so the rise in the price of vinyl carbonate will significantly increase Shida Shenghua's profits.

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